CSX
CSX CorporationNASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CSX has a composite score of 8.9 and a signal label of "mixed." The valuation label has changed from "expensive" to "full," indicating a shift in perception. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with a medium confidence level of 75.4%. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.49 (+1.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 4 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 12 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Deliver full-year volume growthgrowthwatchprovisional
9/29: “CSX's operating performance remains strong, and the company still expects to deliver full-year volume growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total volume grew 3% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reaching 1.56 million units. This aligns with management's stated goal of achieving full-year volume growth, indicating progress towards the target.
- 2.Improve expense profilecostmixed65% progress
4/22: “CSX performed well by improving our expense profile, said Steve Angel, CEO.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Expenses decreased by $153 million, or 6%, in 2026-Q1 compared to the previous year, reflecting management's focus on improving the expense profile. This indicates progress in cost discipline and efficiency.
- 3.Enhance operational efficiencysupply chainon track100% progress
4/22: “Velocity and dwell both improved by 7% versus prior year.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operational efficiency improved with a 7% increase in velocity and a 7% reduction in dwell times compared to the previous year. This demonstrates progress in enhancing operational efficiency.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.81 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 63/100, drawdown 76/100, beta 81/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for CSX changed from "expensive" to "full." The composite delta estimate indicates an unfavorable scenario with a guidance cut of -8.0, while there are also favorable scenarios such as a potential guidance raise of +4.0. The overall signal is described as "mixed." The data is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -11.4% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Deliver full-year volume growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04CSX aims to achieve volume growth across its operations for the full year.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total volume grew 3% year-over-year in 2026-Q1, reaching 1.56 million units. This aligns with management's stated goal of achieving full-year volume growth, indicating progress towards the target.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“CSX's operating performance remains strong, and the company still expects to deliver full-year volume growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-09-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Total volume of 1.56 million units for the quarter was 3% higher compared to first quarter 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“CSX is well-positioned to build on this momentum to deliver long-term profitable growth.”
- #2
Improve expense profile
CostCSX is focused on improving its expense profile through cost discipline and efficiency.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Expenses decreased by $153 million, or 6%, in 2026-Q1 compared to the previous year, reflecting management's focus on improving the expense profile. This indicates progress in cost discipline and efficiency.
65%CEO/CFO:“CSX performed well by improving our expense profile, said Steve Angel, CEO.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“CSX performed well by improving our expense profile.”
- #3
Enhance operational efficiency
Supply chainCSX is committed to enhancing operational efficiency through improved velocity and reduced dwell times.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Operational efficiency improved with a 7% increase in velocity and a 7% reduction in dwell times compared to the previous year. This demonstrates progress in enhancing operational efficiency.
100%CEO/CFO:“Velocity and dwell both improved by 7% versus prior year.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Velocity and dwell both improved by 7% versus prior year.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSX CSX Corporation | +8.9 | full | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-22)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, CSX Corporation issued a press release and its CSX Quarterly Financial Report on financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the CSX Quarterly Financial Report is attached as Exhibit 99.2, each of which is incorporated by reference herein. These documents are available on the Company's website, www.csx.com. * The information contained…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45 - 2026-01-223mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 22, 2026, CSX Corporation issued a press release and its CSX Quarterly Financial Report on financial and operating results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the CSX Quarterly Financial Report is attached as Exhibit 99.2, each of which is incorporated by reference herein. These documents are available on the Company's website, www.csx.com. * The information cont…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.