CTRA
CoterraNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CTRA has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of -7.6 and a medium confidence level of 77.9. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macro outlook with a score of 4.0, but a low management score of 46.9 and a sector score of 2.6. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.75
- Slope (norm)-0.49
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.66 (+9.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-05-07CTRA — legal / regulatory event — Prior to the consummation of the Merger, shares of Company Commonimpact 0.64
- 2026-05-07CTRA — officer changeimpact 0.57
- 2025-09-22CTRA — CFO transitionimpact 0.43
- 2026-04-24CTRA — litigation filedimpact 0.40
- 2026-05-07CTRA — M&A activity — As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in controlimpact 0.32
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Complete merger with Devon Energygrowthbehind4% progress
2/26: “CEO: 'We are excited about the announced merger with Devon Energy and the opportunities created by the combined company.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The merger with Devon Energy is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, creating an industry-leading shale operator. The merger aims to unlock substantial value for shareholders, but as of now, the financials do not reflect any impact from this merger. The trajectory is pending completion.
- 2.Maintain capital expenditure guidancecapital allocationmixed34% progress
2/26: “Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $2.25 billion, with a range of $2.175 to $2.325 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 at $2.25 billion. However, financials show a decline in revenue from $1.817 billion in 2025-Q3 to $243 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining this guidance. The trajectory is behind.
- 3.Achieve free cash flow targetcapital allocationmixed34% progress
2/26: “Expect Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $2.35 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims for a free cash flow of $2.35 billion in 2026. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3.192 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating significant challenges in achieving this target. The trajectory is behind.
- 4.Meet production guidancegrowthwatchprovisional
2/26: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 29%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 51/100, drawdown 69/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Complete merger with Devon Energy
GrowthFocus on completing the merger with Devon Energy to create a leading shale operator.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The merger with Devon Energy is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, creating an industry-leading shale operator. The merger aims to unlock substantial value for shareholders, but as of now, the financials do not reflect any impact from this merger. The trajectory is pending completion.
4%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We are excited about the announced merger with Devon Energy and the opportunities created by the combined company.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-26Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We are excited about the announced merger with Devon Energy...'”
- #2
Maintain capital expenditure guidance
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue to maintain capital expenditure guidance for 2026 at $2.25 billion.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 at $2.25 billion. However, financials show a decline in revenue from $1.817 billion in 2025-Q3 to $243 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining this guidance. The trajectory is behind.
Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $2.25 billion34%CEO/CFO:“Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $2.25 billion, with a range of $2.175 to $2.325 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $2.25 billion...”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Continue to expect 2025 capital expenditures (non-GAAP) around $2.3 billion.”
- #3
Achieve free cash flow target
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Aim to achieve a free cash flow target of $2.35 billion for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims for a free cash flow of $2.35 billion in 2026. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3.192 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating significant challenges in achieving this target. The trajectory is behind.
Expect Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $2.35 billion34%CEO/CFO:“Expect Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $2.35 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expect Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $2.35 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Expect 2025 Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of approximately $2.0 billion.”
- #4
Meet production guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Coterra expects to achieve an annual total production of 750 to 810 MBoepd in 2026.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-26First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
55 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTRA Coterra | -7.6 | expensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-26)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 3.01
Prior to the consummation of the Merger, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) under the trading symbol “CTRA.” In connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company notified the NYSE that the Merger had been completed and requested that the NYSE delist the shares of Company Common Stock. Upon the Company’s request, the NYSE filed a notification of removal from listing on Form 25 with the SEC with respect to the delisting an…
legal regulatorynegativescore 78 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 5.01
As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in control of the Company occurred, and the Company became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon.
mna activityneutralscore 78 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.01
Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger (the “Effective Time”), each share of common stock, $0.10 par value, issued and outstanding of the Company (“Company Common Stock”) (other than shares held by Devon, Merger Sub or any of their respective subsidiaries or by the Company or any of its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Excluded Shares”)), was converted into the right to receive from Devon 0.70 fully paid and nonassessable shares of common stock, $0.10 par value,…
mna activitypositivescore 69 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, effective as of the Effective Time, each member of the Company’s board of directors and each officer of the Company immediately prior to the Effective Time ceased his or her respective service as a director or officer of the Company. Such cessations of service were not related to any disagreement with the Company o…
executive changeneutralscore 55 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the consummation of the Merger, on the Closing Date, the Company terminated all outstanding lender commitments under the Credit Agreement, dated as of March 10, 2023 (as amended by Amendment No. 1, dated as of September 12, 2024, and as further amended, restated, supplemented or modified prior to the Closing Date, the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N…
mna activitynegativescore 51
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.