CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$157.62-2.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 60 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CVLT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-24
Director — David Morton, Jr.: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a standard governance event and not the departure of an executive officer.
Why it matters: The company reported $71 million of free cash flow in Q2. A full-year result below the guide would limit cash available for share repurchases.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 free cash flow is below $255 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 free cash flow is at least $255 million.
Why it matters: SaaS ARR rose from $424 million to $454 million in Q2. Growth below 20% would mark a clear slowdown in this fast-growing business.
Worry ifSaaS ARR growth falls below 20% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifSaaS ARR growth stays at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: The full-year margin guide is 21.0% to 21.5%. Falling below its floor would weaken the profitable growth story.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 non-GAAP EBIT margin is below 21.0%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 non-GAAP EBIT margin is at least 21.0%.
Why it matters: The Q3 fiscal 2027 guide sets a clear test for recurring revenue growth. Results above its range would show stronger growth.
Supportive ifQ3 fiscal 2027 subscription revenue is above $297 million.
Worry ifQ3 fiscal 2027 subscription revenue is below $293 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $437 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,234 loss on $10,000 · 42.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Subscription ARR grew 20% year over year in Q2. A result above the updated guide would extend that growth.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 subscription ARR is above $1,215 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 subscription ARR is below $1,205 million.