CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$136.41-0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CVLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
CVLT — CFO transition
Dated 2026-04-13
Chief Financial Officer — Gary Merrill: Gary Merrill was promoted to Chief Financial Officer from his previous role as Chief Commercial Officer.
Why it matters: New partnerships could enhance Commvault's market position and drive growth.
Supportive ifA new big partnership in AI or data protection was announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income would show that Commvault is managing costs better.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $16.6M in 2026-Q4 to above $18.2M in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifOperating income remains at or below $16.6M in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: Meeting this cash flow target shows strong finances. It helps support growth plans and gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $250 million and $260 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $250 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow growth would indicate that Commvault is improving its financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $132.2M, growing more than 50% year over year in Q1.
Worry ifCash from operations growth reported below 35% year over year in Q1.
Why it matters: This confirms the company's ability to maintain growth. It reflects overall business health and market demand.
Supportive ifTotal revenues reported within the range of $1,300 million to $1,310 million.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $1,300 million.
Why it matters: Slower ARR growth could signal weakening demand for Commvault's services.
Worry ifARR growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifARR growth reported above 22% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable EBIT margin shows good cost management. This helps the company grow and builds investor trust.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EBIT margin reported at or above 20% for Q2.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EBIT margin drops below 19%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in demand for Commvault's services.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year in the earnings release on July 28, 2026.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue growth reported at or above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong growth in subscription revenue. This is crucial for Commvault's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 subscription revenue reported at $268 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 subscription revenue falls below $264 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $469 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,153 loss on $10,000 · 61.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.