CVNA
CarvanaNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CVNA has a composite score of 13.9 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 72.3 and a high market risk score of 76.1. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.71
- Slope (norm)-0.28
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2021-Q1, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2024-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.42 (+12.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 13 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase retail units soldgrowthmixed63% progress
4/29: “We remain on track to deliver significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Retail units sold totaled 596,641 in 2025, a 43% increase year-over-year. Despite the stated focus on growth, the financials show a decline in revenue from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in sustaining growth momentum.
- 2.Achieve record Adjusted EBITDAgrowthmixed63% progress
2/18: “Adjusted EBITDA of $2.237 billion, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.0%”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.237 billion in 2025, with a margin of 11.0%, up from 10.1% in 2024. Despite achieving record EBITDA, the decline in revenue from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4 suggests challenges in maintaining profitability momentum.
- 3.Expand production capacitygrowthbehind0% progress
2/18: “We plan to continue integrating existing ADESA sites with a target of 6 to 8 new integrations.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Carvana integrated 10 additional ADESA production locations in 2025, aiming for 6 to 8 new integrations in 2026. However, the financials show a significant revenue drop from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in leveraging expanded capacity for growth.
- 4.Maintain stable financial environmentotherwatchprovisional
10/29: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 490%; 252d 175%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −84%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase retail units sold
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on significant growth in retail units sold to achieve market expansion.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Retail units sold totaled 596,641 in 2025, a 43% increase year-over-year. Despite the stated focus on growth, the financials show a decline in revenue from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in sustaining growth momentum.
Retail units sold totaled 596,641, an increase of 43%63%CEO/CFO:“We remain on track to deliver significant growth in both retail units sold and Adjusted EBITDA in FY 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Retail units sold totaled 596,641, an increase of 43%”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Retail units sold above 150,000 expected in Q4”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“We expect a sequential increase in both retail units sold”
- #2
Achieve record Adjusted EBITDA
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim for record Adjusted EBITDA to enhance profitability and financial stability.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.237 billion in 2025, with a margin of 11.0%, up from 10.1% in 2024. Despite achieving record EBITDA, the decline in revenue from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4 suggests challenges in maintaining profitability momentum.
Adjusted EBITDA of $2.237 billion, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.0%63%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EBITDA of $2.237 billion, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.0%”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adjusted EBITDA of $2.237 billion, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.0%”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of our range”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 to $2.2 billion for the full year 2025”
- #3
Expand production capacity
GrowthIncrease production capacity to support growth to 3 million annual retail units.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Carvana integrated 10 additional ADESA production locations in 2025, aiming for 6 to 8 new integrations in 2026. However, the financials show a significant revenue drop from $5.6B in 2025-Q3 to $125M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in leveraging expanded capacity for growth.
0%CEO/CFO:“We plan to continue integrating existing ADESA sites with a target of 6 to 8 new integrations.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We integrated 10 additional ADESA production locations”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“We plan to execute four key production strategies over time”
- #4
Maintain stable financial environment
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Carvana's growth expectations are contingent on a stable financial environment.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
12 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | +19 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Carvana Co. (the "Company") held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) on May 5, 2026. At the Annual Meeting, the Company's stockholders approved the Carvana Co. 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “2026 Plan”). The 2026 Plan is described in Item 3 in the Company’s definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A, which was filed wi…
executive changeneutralscore 54 - 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Carvana Co. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a letter to its shareholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on April 29, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its shareholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exh…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Carvana Co. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 by issuing a letter to its shareholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on February 18, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the Company's letter to its shareholders and press release are attached…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 12
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.