CVX
Chevron CorporationNYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CVX has a composite score of 3.0, with a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects high confidence at 83.5, driven by macro factors such as inflation, labor, growth, and rates. The sector score is lower at 2.6, indicating some challenges in that area, while the valuation is considered expensive at 18.0.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.11
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.75 → $5.01 (+81.7% / 30d). 12 raised, 2 cut, 15 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 72% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
10 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Drive free cash flow and production growthgrowthwatchprovisional
7/18: “Chevron expects to drive significant free cash flow and production growth into the 2030s.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the stated focus on free cash flow growth, cash from operating activities showed a negative trend, with a significant outflow of $12.25 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress in achieving the stated growth.
- 2.Maintain capital and cost disciplinecostwatchprovisional
5/2: “Chevron focuses on capital and cost discipline to deliver industry-leading free cash flow growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the emphasis on cost discipline, cash from operating activities was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$12.25 billion, indicating limited progress in maintaining cost discipline.
- 3.Return cash to shareholderscapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
1/30: “Chevron returned $27.1 billion of cash to shareholders, including $12.1 billion in share repurchases.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders, including $12.1 billion in share repurchases. This indicates a strong commitment to capital allocation, with substantive delivery in shareholder returns.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-30 | $0.72 | $1.71 | beat |
| 2022-12-31 | $5.56 | $4.09 | miss |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.50 – 1.50 | 1.82 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.85 | $1.52 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 64/100, drawdown 72/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 4 guided quarters · 43.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Drive free cash flow and production growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Chevron aims to drive significant free cash flow and production growth into the 2030s.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the stated focus on free cash flow growth, cash from operating activities showed a negative trend, with a significant outflow of $12.25 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress in achieving the stated growth.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Chevron expects to drive significant free cash flow and production growth into the 2030s.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“This accretive transaction is expected to drive significant free cash flow and production growth into the 2030s.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“our resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and consistent focus on capital and cost discipline position us to deliver industry-leading free cash flow growth by 2026.”
- #2
Maintain capital and cost discipline
CostNew since 2026-05-04Chevron emphasizes maintaining capital and cost discipline to support financial stability.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the emphasis on cost discipline, cash from operating activities was negative in 2025-Q4 at -$12.25 billion, indicating limited progress in maintaining cost discipline.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Chevron focuses on capital and cost discipline to deliver industry-leading free cash flow growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-05-02Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“our resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and consistent focus on capital and cost discipline position us to deliver industry-leading free cash flow growth by 2026.”
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“Chevron will provide updated long-term financial and operational information and guidance to reflect the acquisition of Hess at its Investor Day in New York City on November 12.”
- #3
Return cash to shareholders
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Chevron aims to return significant cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders, including $12.1 billion in share repurchases. This indicates a strong commitment to capital allocation, with substantive delivery in shareholder returns.
Chevron returned $27.1 billion of cash to shareholders44%CEO/CFO:“Chevron returned $27.1 billion of cash to shareholders, including $12.1 billion in share repurchases.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company returned $27.1 billion of cash to shareholders during the year, including share repurchases of $12.1 billion, dividends of $12.8 billion, and $2.2 billion of Hess share purchases in early…”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | -13 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-09)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-09)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-017d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 1, 2026, Chevron Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing unaudited first quarter 2026 earnings of $2.2 billion. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information included herein and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the S…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 61 - 2026-04-0929d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 9, 2026 , Chevron Corporation (“Chevron” or the “Company”) is providing guidance on certain items affecting first quarter 2026 financial results. This includes the Company's current estimates of the financial and operational impacts from the heightened commodity price volatility related to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Unit 1Q 2026 Outlook Timing effects 1 $ B $(2.7) - (3.7) Working capital $ B $(2.0) - (4.0) Upstream commodity…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 37 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) 2026 Executive Compensation Review and 2026 Base Salaries On January 28, 2026, the independent Directors of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Chevron Corporation (“Chevron”) conducted an annual review of the compensation of Chevron’s executive officers, including Michael K. Wirth, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”); Eimear P. Bo…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On January 27, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Chevron Corporation (the “Corporation”) appointed Thomas W. Horton as a member of the Board, effective on January 27, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Horton was also appointed as a member of the Audit Committee of the Board on the Effective Date. Mr. Horton, age 64, is a partner at G…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-303mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 30, 2026, Chevron Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing unaudited fourth quarter 2025 earnings of $2.8 billion. The news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information included herein and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.