DAL
Delta Air LinesNYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DAL has a composite score of 4.7 and a signal label of "mixed." The valuation label has changed from "fair" to "inexpensive," indicating a more favorable view on valuation. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with a medium confidence level of 77.6%.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.65
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.06 → $1.45 (-29.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 15 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.4% above current price.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
15 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reduce capacity growth to protect marginscostbehind0% progress
4/8: “CEO: 'We are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow, including meaningfully reducing capacity growth.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta reported operating income of $501 million with an operating margin of 3.2% in 2026-Q1, despite a pre-tax loss of $214 million. The company is taking steps to protect margins by reducing capacity growth, but the financials show limited progress in margin protection so far.
- 2.Strengthen investment-grade balance sheetcapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/8: “Delta: 'Continuing to strengthen investment-grade balance sheet, with adjusted net debt below 2019 levels.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta's adjusted net debt was $13.5 billion at the end of 2026-Q1, a reduction of $760 million from the end of 2025. The company is making progress in strengthening its balance sheet, aligning with its stated priority.
- 3.Enhance operational resiliencecostbehind0% progress
4/8: “COO: 'Improving operational resilience is a top focus and we are confident in delivering improvement in both operational and cost performance.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta's operating income was $501 million with an operating margin of 3.2% in 2026-Q1. The company is focusing on enhancing operational resilience, but the financials indicate limited progress in cost performance improvement so far.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $0.25 – $0.50 | $0.45 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | $2.20 – $2.50 | $2.36 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $6.00 – $7.00 | $1.50 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.60 – $1.85 | $1.85 | inside |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.30 – $0.50 | $0.46 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.70 – $2.30 | $2.10 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.25 – $1.75 | $1.71 | inside |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.25 | $1.86 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 38%; 252d 40%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.48 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 33/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 52/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for DAL changed from "fair" to "inexpensive." The overall signal is now "mixed." There are several unfavorable scenarios, including a potential guidance cut and a reversal in growth and labor states. The macro score remains at 30.0, indicating ongoing concerns in that area.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · -2.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reduce capacity growth to protect margins
CostDelta is reducing capacity growth to protect margins amid rising fuel costs.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta reported operating income of $501 million with an operating margin of 3.2% in 2026-Q1, despite a pre-tax loss of $214 million. The company is taking steps to protect margins by reducing capacity growth, but the financials show limited progress in margin protection so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow, including meaningfully reducing capacity growth.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-08Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-08Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow, including meaningfully reducing capacity growth.'”
- #2
Strengthen investment-grade balance sheet
Capital allocationDelta aims to strengthen its balance sheet, reducing adjusted net debt below 2019 levels.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta's adjusted net debt was $13.5 billion at the end of 2026-Q1, a reduction of $760 million from the end of 2025. The company is making progress in strengthening its balance sheet, aligning with its stated priority.
Adjusted net debt of $13.5 billion at March quarter end65%CEO/CFO:“Delta: 'Continuing to strengthen investment-grade balance sheet, with adjusted net debt below 2019 levels.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-08Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-08Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Delta: 'Continuing to strengthen investment-grade balance sheet, with adjusted net debt below 2019 levels.'”
- #3
Enhance operational resilience
CostDelta focuses on improving operational resilience and cost performance in the second half of the year.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Delta's operating income was $501 million with an operating margin of 3.2% in 2026-Q1. The company is focusing on enhancing operational resilience, but the financials indicate limited progress in cost performance improvement so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“COO: 'Improving operational resilience is a top focus and we are confident in delivering improvement in both operational and cost performance.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-08Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-08Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“COO: 'Improving operational resilience is a top focus and we are confident in delivering improvement in both operational and cost performance.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
42 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DAL Delta Air Lines | +4.7 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-03-17)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-081mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Delta Air Lines, Inc. today issued a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 39 - 2026-03-052mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) today announced certain leadership changes, as further detailed in Delta’s News Hub story, a copy of which is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. (b), (c) As part of these leadership changes, Delta announced that John E. Laughter, Delta’s Executive Vice President - Chief of Operations and President - Delta TechO…
executive changeneutralscore 18 - 2026-02-132mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. (b) Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) has announced that William C. Carroll, who has served as Delta’s principal accounting officer, will retire effective March 31, 2026. (c) Julia A. McConnell, age 57, joined Delta in March 2025 and is being designated as Delta’s principal accounting officer effective April 1, 2026. Prior to joining Delta, she served as Senior Vice President and Chief Accoun…
executive changeneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 27, 2026, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta”) entered into a definitive agreement with Airbus S.A.S. to purchase 16 Airbus A330-900 aircraft and 15 Airbus A350-900 aircraft, with an option to purchase up to an additional 20 widebody aircraft. Deliveries of the aircraft will begin in 2029. The A330-900 aircraft will be powered by the Trent 7000 engine and the A350-900 aircraft will utilize the Trent XWB-84 EP engine, both manufactured by Rolls…
legal regulatorynegativescore 6 - 2026-01-133mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Delta today issued a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and full year 2025. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. In addition, a summary containing supplemental information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any ot…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.