DHI
D. R. HortonNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DHI has a composite score of 7.3 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 73.1, with elevated risk due to factors such as macro growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The current analysis is provisional, indicating that the situation may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.94 → $2.99 (+1.5% / 30d). 7 raised, 6 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue to $33.5-$34.5 billiongrowthbehind0% progress
4/21: “D.R. Horton is updating its guidance for fiscal 2026 as follows: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $6.89 billion in 2026-Q1, down from $10.86 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $33.5-$34.5 billion target, indicating a need for acceleration to meet the fiscal year-end goal.
- 2.Maintain dividend payments at $500 millioncapital allocationmixed65% progress
4/21: “Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided for dividend payments of approximately $500 million, maintaining its commitment to capital allocation. The status is on track as per the latest guidance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 39%; 252d 38%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.08 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 36/100, drawdown 45/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue to $33.5-$34.5 billion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to achieve consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $6.89 billion in 2026-Q1, down from $10.86 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $33.5-$34.5 billion target, indicating a need for acceleration to meet the fiscal year-end goal.
0%CEO/CFO:“D.R. Horton is updating its guidance for fiscal 2026 as follows: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“D.R. Horton is updating its guidance for fiscal 2026 as follows: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $34.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“D.R. Horton is reiterating its fiscal 2026 guidance as follows: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $35.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Based on current market conditions, D.R. Horton is providing initial guidance for fiscal 2026 including: Consolidated revenues in the range of $33.5 billion to $35.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain dividend payments at $500 million
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue to maintain dividend payments at approximately $500 million for fiscal 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided for dividend payments of approximately $500 million, maintaining its commitment to capital allocation. The status is on track as per the latest guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Dividend payments of approximately $500 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DHI D. R. Horton | +7.3 | fair | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-21)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 44 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. D.R. Horton, Inc. Credit Agreement Effective March 27, 2026 , D.R. Horton, Inc. (“D.R. Horton”), Mizuho Bank, Ltd., as successor Administrative Agent, an Issuing Bank and a Lender (“Mizuho” or “Administrative Agent”) and certain other Lenders entered into Amendment No. 13 (“Amendment No. 13”) to the Credit Agreement dated as of September 7, 2012 , as amended prior to the date hereof (as so amended, the “D.R. Horton Credit Agreement”). Pursuant to th…
capital allocationneutralscore 27 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. All the information set forth above under
capital allocationnegativescore 22 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 2.02
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.