DVN
Devon EnergyNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DVN has a mixed signal label with a composite score of 5.7 and a medium confidence level of 75.5. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable outlook if inflation reverses and if next-quarter guidance is raised, while it may decline if guidance is cut or if the energy sector trend weakens. The overall risk is categorized as moderate, with a valuation score of 19.1 indicating it is considered expensive. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.67 → $1.71 (+2.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.7% above current price.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Optimize capital programcapital allocationmixed40% progressprovisional
2/2: “The company plans to realize synergies through an optimized capital program.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital requirements are projected to decrease by $100 million from 2025 levels, indicating limited progress in optimizing the capital program. The focus on synergies through optimization is recurring, but substantive delivery remains narrow.
- 2.Maintain production levelsgrowthwatchprovisional
11/5: “The company aims to maintain total production at approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production is expected to average 851,000 to 868,000 Boe per day in 2026-Q2, aligning with the goal to maintain levels. However, the trajectory shows limited progress as the target range remains consistent without significant improvement.
- 3.Drive free cash flow improvementscapital allocationmixed40% progressprovisional
2/2: “The realization of $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies projected to drive significant, annual free cash flow improvements.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company projects $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies to drive free cash flow improvements. However, without specific financial results or improvements reported, the progress remains speculative at this stage.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 33%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.12 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 45/100, drawdown 70/100, beta 12/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Optimize capital program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Devon Energy aims to optimize its capital program to achieve synergies and cost efficiencies.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital requirements are projected to decrease by $100 million from 2025 levels, indicating limited progress in optimizing the capital program. The focus on synergies through optimization is recurring, but substantive delivery remains narrow.
40%CEO/CFO:“The company plans to realize synergies through an optimized capital program.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-02Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“synergies to be realized through an optimized capital program”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital requirements are projected to decrease by $100 million from 2025 levels”
- #2
Maintain production levels
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Devon Energy aims to maintain production levels at approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day in 2026.
Behind →WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production is expected to average 851,000 to 868,000 Boe per day in 2026-Q2, aligning with the goal to maintain levels. However, the trajectory shows limited progress as the target range remains consistent without significant improvement.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The company aims to maintain total production at approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“production in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to average 851,000 to 868,000 Boe per day”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“In 2026, the company aims to maintain total production at approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day.”
- #3
Drive free cash flow improvements
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Devon Energy is focused on driving significant annual free cash flow improvements through synergies.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company projects $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies to drive free cash flow improvements. However, without specific financial results or improvements reported, the progress remains speculative at this stage.
40%CEO/CFO:“The realization of $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies projected to drive significant, annual free cash flow improvements.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-02Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“the realization of $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies projected to drive significant, annual free cash flow improvements”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
47 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DVN Devon Energy | +5.7 | expensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Directors Effective upon the consummation of the Merger, in accordance with the Merger Agreement and as approved by the Devon board of directors (the “ Devon Board ”), the Devon Board consists of the following 11 members: (i) Clay M. Gaspar, Ann G. Fox, Kelt Kindick, Karl F. Kurz, Brent Smolik and Valerie M. Williams (each, a “ Legac…
executive changeneutralscore 78 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.01
by reference. Pursuant to the Merger, each share of Coterra common stock, par value $0.10 per share (the “ Coterra Common Stock ”), issued and outstanding (other than the Excluded Shares (as defined in the Merger Agreement)), was automatically converted into the right to receive 0.70 shares of common stock (the “ Exchange Ratio ”), par value $0.10 per share, of the Company (the “ Company Common Stock ”). No fractional shares of Company Common Stock were issued in the Merger, and holders of sh…
mna activitypositivescore 69 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Devon Energy Corporation (the “Company”) announced its financial and operational results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. In connection with this announcement, the Company provided an earnings release and certain supplemental financial information (including guidance and hedging information). Copies of these documents are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report and, along with certain other…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 68 - 2026-04-2414d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously announced, on February 1, 2026, Devon Energy Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ” or “ Devon ”), Cubs Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a direct, wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company (“ Merger Sub ”), and Coterra Energy Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Coterra ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”). The Merger Agreement provides that, among other things and upon the terms and subject to the conditions…
legal regulatorynegativescore 37 - 2026-03-241mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 24, 2026, Devon Energy Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a First Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Amendment ”), by and among the Company, as borrower, the lenders and the letter of credit issuers party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, which amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of March 24, 2023 (as amended, restated, amended…
capital allocationneutralscore 23
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.