DXCM
DexcomNASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DXCM has a composite score of 19.6, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.0 and is driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly labor and rates. The sector score is low at 7.6, indicating potential challenges in that area. The overall risk is labeled as moderate, with a total risk score of 48.4.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.61 (+0.7% / 30d). 9 raised, 5 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 32.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/30: “Dexcom is reiterating guidance for Revenue of $5.16 - $5.25 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is set at $5.16 - $5.25 billion, representing approximately 11-13% growth. Despite reiterating this guidance, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $745.6M, down from $1.209B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards the target.
- 2.Improve operating margincostbehind14% progress
4/30: “Dexcom is raising fiscal year 2026 guidance for Non-GAAP Operating Margin.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating Margin guidance was raised to 23.5% for 2026. However, operating income decreased from $242.5M in 2025-Q3 to $43.8M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in margin improvement.
- 3.Maintain gross profit margincostbehind14% progress
4/30: “Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of approximately 63-64%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross Profit Margin guidance is maintained at 63-64% for 2026. Gross profit decreased from $731.4M in 2025-Q3 to $456.1M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining the margin.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −39%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.76 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 35/100, drawdown 23/100, beta 76/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Dexcom aims to increase its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is set at $5.16 - $5.25 billion, representing approximately 11-13% growth. Despite reiterating this guidance, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $745.6M, down from $1.209B in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards the target.
14%CEO/CFO:“Dexcom is reiterating guidance for Revenue of $5.16 - $5.25 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Dexcom is reiterating guidance for Revenue of $5.16 - $5.25 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Dexcom is reiterating fiscal year 2026 guidance for Revenue.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Dexcom is raising fiscal year 2025 guidance for Revenue.”
- #2
Improve operating margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Dexcom is focused on improving its operating margin for fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating Margin guidance was raised to 23.5% for 2026. However, operating income decreased from $242.5M in 2025-Q3 to $43.8M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in margin improvement.
14%CEO/CFO:“Dexcom is raising fiscal year 2026 guidance for Non-GAAP Operating Margin.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Dexcom is raising fiscal year 2026 guidance for Non-GAAP Operating Margin.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP Operating Margin of approximately 22-23%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP Operating Margin of approximately 20-21%.”
- #3
Maintain gross profit margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Dexcom aims to maintain its gross profit margin at approximately 63-64% for 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross Profit Margin guidance is maintained at 63-64% for 2026. Gross profit decreased from $731.4M in 2025-Q3 to $456.1M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining the margin.
14%CEO/CFO:“Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of approximately 63-64%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of approximately 63-64%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of approximately 63-64%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of approximately 61%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DXCM Dexcom | +20 | fair | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-30)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 30, 2026, DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. As previously reported on the Current Report on Form 8-K filed on July 30, 2025, Kevin R. Sayer notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom” or the “Company”) of his intent to retire from his role as Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026. In connection with his retirement, on July 25, 2025, the Board appointed…
executive changeneutralscore 17 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On February 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom” or the “Company”), pursuant to the Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Company, increased the size of the Board to twelve directors and appointed Albert F. (“Rick”) Osterloh, IV as a director effective immediately. Mr. Osterloh will hold office for a term expiring a…
executive changeneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 12, 2026, DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2025-09-157mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. Effective September 14, 2025, Kevin R. Sayer, Chief Executive Officer (principal executive officer) and Chairman of the Board of DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom” or the “Company”) is taking a temporary medical leave of absence. Accordingly, effective September 14, 2025, Dexcom’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Jacob S. Leach, President and Chief O…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.