EBAY
eBay Inc.NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryInternet RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, eBay has a composite score of 18.9, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is supported by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0 and a macro score of 17.9. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor conditions. The overall risk is labeled as "elevated," with a total risk score of 54.1.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.49 → $1.51 (+1.3% / 30d). 8 raised, 2 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 17 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain revenue growth trajectorygrowthbehind0% progress
4/29: “eBay is providing the following guidance for continuing operations for the second quarter 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.97B to $3.03B, indicating a focus on maintaining growth. Revenue was $2.177B in 2025-Q4, showing a decline from $2.82B in 2025-Q3. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Focus on EPS growthgrowthbehind0% progress
2/18: “Diluted GAAP EPS $1.14 - $1.20 for Q1 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026-Q1 is $1.14 to $1.20, reflecting a focus on EPS growth. EPS was $1.35 in 2025-Q3, indicating a decline in subsequent quarters. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 3.Enhance gross margincostmixed65% progress
2/18: “Gross Merchandise Volume $21.5 - $21.9 for Q1 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $1.594B in 2025-Q4, down from $1.999B in 2025-Q3, indicating challenges in enhancing gross margin. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | $0.96 – $1.01 | $1.03 | beat |
| 2024-03-31 | $1.19 – $1.23 | $1.25 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.76 – $0.81 | $1.18 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.82 – $0.87 | $1.19 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.98 – $1.02 | $1.38 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.87 – $0.94 | $1.37 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.97 – $1.02 | $1.36 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.14 – $1.20 | $1.66 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 37%; 252d 38%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 37/100, drawdown 59/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 33.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain revenue growth trajectory
GrowthFocus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.97B to $3.03B, indicating a focus on maintaining growth. Revenue was $2.177B in 2025-Q4, showing a decline from $2.82B in 2025-Q3. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“eBay is providing the following guidance for continuing operations for the second quarter 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-29Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for continuing operations for the first quarter 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for continuing operations for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for the third quarter 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for the second quarter 2025.”
- #2
Focus on EPS growth
GrowthDrive earnings per share growth through operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026-Q1 is $1.14 to $1.20, reflecting a focus on EPS growth. EPS was $1.35 in 2025-Q3, indicating a decline in subsequent quarters. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“Diluted GAAP EPS $1.14 - $1.20 for Q1 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Diluted GAAP EPS $1.14 - $1.20”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for continuing operations for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“eBay is providing the following guidance for the third quarter 2025.”
- #3
Enhance gross margin
CostImprove gross margin through cost management and operational efficiencies.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $1.594B in 2025-Q4, down from $1.999B in 2025-Q3, indicating challenges in enhancing gross margin. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Gross profit was $1.594B in 2025-Q465%CEO/CFO:“Gross Merchandise Volume $21.5 - $21.9 for Q1 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-18Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Gross Merchandise Volume $21.5 - $21.9”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Gross Merchandise Volume $19.2 - $19.6 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth 3% - 5%”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EBAY eBay Inc. | +19 | full | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, the Company announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release announcing its financial results and certain other information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 59 - 2026-03-241mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 19, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of eBay Inc. (the “Company”) increased its size to 12 members and appointed Brian H. Sharples as a member of the Board, effective March 20, 2026. His term will expire at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders or at such time as his respective successor has been elected and qualified…
executive changeneutralscore 20 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, the Company announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company's press release announcing its financial results and certain other information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 11 - 2025-06-3010mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As further described in
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.