ECL
EcolabNYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ECL has a composite score of 21.1, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score is supported by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates. The valuation score is 70.0, categorized as "inexpensive."
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.13 → $2.07 (-2.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 12 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain EPS growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Ecolab maintains 2026 adjusted diluted EPS outlook: $8.43 - $8.63, +12% - 15%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ecolab maintains 2026 EPS guidance of $8.43 - $8.63, reflecting a 12% - 15% increase. Despite the positive outlook, financials show mixed results with revenue fluctuating from $4.16B in 2025-Q3 to $3.80B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows persistent focus but limited substantive delivery in revenue growth.
- 2.Manage capital allocationcapital allocationmixed30% progress
4/15: “Ecolab entered into a $4.75 billion unsecured committed delayed draw term loan credit facility.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Ecolab established a $4.75 billion credit facility to manage capital allocation. This strategic move aims to support growth and operational efficiency. However, the financials show a decline in cash from operating activities from $1.86B in 2025-Q3 to -$0.77B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in cash flow management.
- 3.Achieve quarterly EPS targetsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Expect adjusted diluted EPS in the $2.02 to $2.12 range, +7% to 12%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ecolab's guidance for 2026-Q2 EPS is $2.02 - $2.12, reflecting a 7% - 12% increase. Despite this target, the financials show a decrease in net income from $585M in 2025-Q3 to $591M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving consistent quarterly EPS growth.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | $1.48 – $1.58 | $1.55 | inside |
| 2024-03-31 | $1.27 – $1.37 | $1.34 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | $1.62 – $1.72 | $1.68 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.75 – $1.85 | $1.83 | inside |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.47 – $1.53 | $1.50 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.84 – $1.94 | $1.89 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.02 – $2.12 | $2.07 | inside |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.69 – $1.71 | $1.70 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −17%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 0.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain EPS growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on maintaining EPS growth through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ecolab maintains 2026 EPS guidance of $8.43 - $8.63, reflecting a 12% - 15% increase. Despite the positive outlook, financials show mixed results with revenue fluctuating from $4.16B in 2025-Q3 to $3.80B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows persistent focus but limited substantive delivery in revenue growth.
0%CEO/CFO:“Ecolab maintains 2026 adjusted diluted EPS outlook: $8.43 - $8.63, +12% - 15%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Ecolab expects first quarter 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $1.69 to $1.71 range.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Ecolab continues to expect adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $8.43 to $8.63 range.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Ecolab is sharpening its 2025 adjusted EPS range to between $7.48 and $7.58.”
- #2
Manage capital allocation
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Strategically manage capital allocation to support growth and operational efficiency.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Ecolab established a $4.75 billion credit facility to manage capital allocation. This strategic move aims to support growth and operational efficiency. However, the financials show a decline in cash from operating activities from $1.86B in 2025-Q3 to -$0.77B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in cash flow management.
30%CEO/CFO:“Ecolab entered into a $4.75 billion unsecured committed delayed draw term loan credit facility.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Ecolab entered into a term credit agreement providing for a $4.75 billion facility.”
- #3
Achieve quarterly EPS targets
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving quarterly EPS targets to ensure consistent financial performance.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Ecolab's guidance for 2026-Q2 EPS is $2.02 - $2.12, reflecting a 7% - 12% increase. Despite this target, the financials show a decrease in net income from $585M in 2025-Q3 to $591M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving consistent quarterly EPS growth.
0%CEO/CFO:“Expect adjusted diluted EPS in the $2.02 to $2.12 range, +7% to 12%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Expect adjusted diluted EPS in the $2.02 to $2.12 range, +7% to 12%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expect first quarter 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share in the $1.67 to $1.73 range.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ECL Ecolab | +21 | inexpensive | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
is furnished and attached as Exhibit (99.1) and (ii) Supplemental Data to be used in connection with the conference call to be held discussing the first quarter results is furnished and attached as Exhibit (99.2), each of which is incorporated by reference herein. Ecolab also will publish the attached exhibits on its website located at www.ecolab.com. Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward Looking Information . Statements contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including statements…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . Term Credit Agreement On April 10, 2026, Ecolab Inc. (“Ecolab”) entered into a term credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with various financial institutions, as lenders, and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, providing for a $4.75 billion unsecured committed delayed draw term loan credit facility. Under the terms of the Credit Agreement, Ecolab may only use the proceeds of loans under the Credit Agreement to (a) finance the previousl…
capital allocationneutralscore 39 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
capital allocationnegativescore 30 - 2026-03-271mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . Ecolab Inc. (“Ecolab” or the “Company”) is providing as an exhibit to this Current Report on Form 8-K a table (Exhibit 99.1) with supplemental unaudited reportable segment information for the years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 reflecting international operations at the fixed currency exchange rates established by Company management at the beginning of 2026. The exhibit also reflects changes to the Company’s segment reporting s…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 25 - 2026-03-201mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and should not be deemed to be “filed” under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Exhibit No. Description Method Of Filing (99.1) Ecolab Inc. News Release dated March 20, 2026. Filed herewith electronically. (104) Cover Page Interactive Data File. Embedded within the Inline XBRL document. 2 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 21
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.