EL
Estée Lauder Companies (The)NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EL has a composite score of -5.1, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by various factors, including a medium confidence level of 79.5 and elevated risk, with a total risk score of 51.7. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions such as labor, inflation, rates, and growth.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.24
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.37 → $0.32 (-13.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
13 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Accelerate organic sales growthgrowthmixed65% progress
5/1: “Our preliminary view is to accelerate organic sales growth... Net Sales Growth of 3% to 5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.48B in 2026-Q1 to $4.23B in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the 3% to 5% growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated priority.
- 2.Rebuild operating profitabilitycostwatchprovisional
8/20: “to begin rebuilding operating profitability in pursuit of a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin over the next few years.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $169M in 2026-Q1 to $401M in 2026-Q2, reflecting progress towards rebuilding profitability. The trajectory is delivering on the priority of achieving a double-digit margin.
- 3.Raise adjusted earnings outlookgrowthmixed65% progress
5/1: “the Company is raising its fiscal 2026 full-year outlook... Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share to range between $2.35 and $2.45.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $0.13 in 2026-Q1 to $0.44 in 2026-Q2, supporting the raised earnings outlook of $2.35 to $2.45 per share. The trajectory is delivering on the priority.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | $2.47 – $2.59 | $1.54 | miss |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.32 – $0.43 | $0.47 | beat |
| 2023-09-30 | $-0.34 – $-0.23 | $0.11 | beat |
| 2023-12-31 | $1.14 – $1.26 | $0.88 | miss |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.35 – $0.46 | $0.97 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.02 – $0.10 | $0.14 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.02 – $0.19 | $0.62 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.20 – $0.30 | $0.65 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 34%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −44%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.96 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 20/100, drawdown 13/100, beta 96/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 8 guided quarters · 109.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Accelerate organic sales growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing organic sales growth after three years of declines.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.48B in 2026-Q1 to $4.23B in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the 3% to 5% growth target. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“Our preliminary view is to accelerate organic sales growth... Net Sales Growth of 3% to 5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Our preliminary view is to accelerate organic sales growth... Net Sales Growth of 3% to 5%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company reaffirms its fiscal 2026 full-year outlook.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“we embarked on fiscal 2026 with signs of momentum and confidence in our outlook to deliver organic sales growth this year after three years of declines”
- #2
Rebuild operating profitability
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to rebuild operating profitability with a focus on achieving a double-digit margin.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $169M in 2026-Q1 to $401M in 2026-Q2, reflecting progress towards rebuilding profitability. The trajectory is delivering on the priority of achieving a double-digit margin.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“to begin rebuilding operating profitability in pursuit of a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin over the next few years.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-08-20Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating margin to range between 10.7% to 11.0%”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is tightening the range on net sales and raising its outlook for adjusted diluted net earnings per common share and adjusted operating margin.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“to begin rebuilding operating profitability in pursuit of a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin over the next few years”
- #3
Raise adjusted earnings outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Increase the adjusted earnings outlook for fiscal 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $0.13 in 2026-Q1 to $0.44 in 2026-Q2, supporting the raised earnings outlook of $2.35 to $2.45 per share. The trajectory is delivering on the priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“the Company is raising its fiscal 2026 full-year outlook... Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share to range between $2.35 and $2.45.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“the Company is raising its fiscal 2026 full-year outlook... Adjusted diluted net earnings per common share to range between $2.35 and $2.45.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is tightening the range on net sales and raising its outlook for adjusted diluted net earnings per common share and adjusted operating margin.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“we remain wholly focused on continuing to execute our strategic vision of Beauty Reimagined with excellence...”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EL Estée Lauder Companies (The) | -5.1 | expensive | elevated |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-017d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 1, 2026, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release includes the Company’s estimates related to certain of its fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 full year financial metrics. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 61 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. As announced on November 1, 2023, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the "Company") launched the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan ("PRGP") to help progressively rebuild its profit margins in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. As a component of the PRGP, on February 5, 2024, the Company announced a two-year restructuring program and filed a Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company committed to this course of action on February 1, 2024. At that time, the…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 26 - 2026-03-231mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the “Company”) confirms that it is in discussions regarding a potential business combination with Puig, in which the two companies would potentially merge their businesses. No final decision has been made, and no agreement has been reached. Unless and until an agreement is signed between the companies, there can be no assurances regarding the deal or its terms. On March 23, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the foregoing. A copy o…
mna activityneutralscore 18 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. The release includes the Company’s estimates related to its fiscal 2026 full year net sales and diluted net earnings per common share. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-12-015mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. As announced on November 1, 2023, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the "Company") launched the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan ("PRGP") to help progressively rebuild its profit margins in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. As a component of the PRGP, on February 5, 2024, the Company announced a two-year restructuring program and filed a Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company committed to this course of action on February 1, 2024. At that time, the…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.