Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Elicio Therapeutics Inc (ELTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.40-10.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ELTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Extend cash runway into Q4 2026 | Elicio aims to extend cash into Q4 2026. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of Q4 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is refining the trial plan, but recent financial performance is weak and the business is loss-making.
The valuation evidence points to ELTX being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The snapshot does not show what clinical or financial expectations the market already assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, cash increased to $23.5 million in 2026-Q2 after a July financing, and management projects runway into Q1 2027. The main multi-year driver is the ELI-002 7P development plan: the Phase 2 trial missed its primary endpoint, while post-hoc subgroup results supported a narrower Phase 3 strategy. A next-call guidance cut is a stated risk, and the evidence also flags a 50% near-term miss probability for this smaller company.
The thesis depends on whether regulatory engagement and a refined Phase 3 design can build on the subgroup signal, despite the missed primary endpoint. Near term, guidance and cash runway matter; broader Healthcare sector strength is a possible support, while weaker job growth and recession concerns are risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ELTX remains a high-risk, early-stage clinical story with mixed trial evidence and a runway extended into Q1 2027. The long-term thesis hinges on the refined development plan producing clearer evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Elicio Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows or stabilizes by FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$2.43 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Conduct AMPLIFY-7P Phase 2 DFS analysis | A primary condition in Elicio Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Complete Phase 2 DFS analysis in H1 2026. | Improving | Phase 2 DFS analysis delayed beyond H1 2026 or negative results | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.43 → $-1.69 · observed estimates
$0.00B → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.43 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.43 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.17 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.69 | Unavailable | 3 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.