EME
EmcorNYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EME has a composite score of 23.6 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.9 and reflects various macroeconomic factors, including growth and labor conditions. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the scores may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $7.20 → $7.26 (+0.8% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase 2026 revenue guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/29: “Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance Range to $18.50 billion - $19.25 billion from $17.75 billion - $18.50 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $17.75B-$18.50B to $18.50B-$19.25B. Despite the increase, the financials show a decline in revenue from $4.3B in 2025-Q2 to $2.5B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving the higher guidance.
- 2.Raise 2026 EPS guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/29: “Increases 2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range to $28.25 - $29.75 from $27.25 - $29.25.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $27.25-$29.25 to $28.25-$29.75. However, diluted EPS was $6.57 in 2025-Q3 and $6.72 in 2025-Q2, suggesting limited progress towards the higher guidance.
- 3.Maintain operating margin guidancecostmixed65% progress
2/26: “Operating Margin 9.0% – 9.4% for full year 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The operating margin guidance for 2026 is set at 9.0%-9.4%. The financials show an operating income of $264M in 2025-Q4, down from $415M in 2025-Q2, indicating challenges in maintaining the margin guidance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 39%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.34 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 36/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 66/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase 2026 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase the revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $17.75B-$18.50B to $18.50B-$19.25B. Despite the increase, the financials show a decline in revenue from $4.3B in 2025-Q2 to $2.5B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving the higher guidance.
14%CEO/CFO:“Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance Range to $18.50 billion - $19.25 billion from $17.75 billion - $18.50 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance Range to $18.50 billion - $19.25 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Based on anticipated project mix and current visibility into the coming year, EMCOR expects the following for full year 2026: Full Year Guidance Revenues $17.75 billion – $18.50 billion.”
- #2
Raise 2026 EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to raise the EPS guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $27.25-$29.25 to $28.25-$29.75. However, diluted EPS was $6.57 in 2025-Q3 and $6.72 in 2025-Q2, suggesting limited progress towards the higher guidance.
14%CEO/CFO:“Increases 2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range to $28.25 - $29.75 from $27.25 - $29.25.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Increases 2026 Diluted EPS Guidance Range to $28.25 - $29.75.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full Year Guidance... Diluted EPS $27.25 – $29.25.”
- #3
Maintain operating margin guidance
CostNew since 2026-05-04Management is committed to maintaining the operating margin guidance for 2026.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The operating margin guidance for 2026 is set at 9.0%-9.4%. The financials show an operating income of $264M in 2025-Q4, down from $415M in 2025-Q2, indicating challenges in maintaining the margin guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“Operating Margin 9.0% – 9.4% for full year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-26Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Operating Margin 9.0% – 9.4% for full year 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EME Emcor | +24 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-29)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, EMCOR Group, Inc. issued a press release disclosing results of operations for its fiscal 2026 first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-02-262mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, EMCOR Group, Inc. issued a press release disclosing results of operations for its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or ot…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 13
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.