EQR
Equity ResidentialNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EQR has a composite score of 3.7, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 67.4 and low risk label of 21.3. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation, with notable unfavorable scenarios related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends weakening.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.33 (-0.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.7% above current price.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on same store revenue growthgrowthwatchprovisional
9/2: “The Company continues to expect to produce same store revenue growth of 2.6% to 3.2% for the full year of 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company expects same store revenue growth of 2.6% to 3.2% for 2025. However, the financials do not provide specific revenue figures to assess delivery, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Manage same store expense growthcostmixed0% progressprovisional
2/5: “Same store expense growth expected to be between 3.0% and 4.0%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects same store expense growth between 3.0% and 4.0%. The financials do not provide specific expense figures, making it difficult to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 3.Achieve same store NOI growthgrowthmixed0% progressprovisional
2/5: “Same store NOI growth expected to be between 0.5% and 2.5%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects same store NOI growth between 0.5% and 2.5%. The financials do not provide specific NOI figures, making it difficult to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $0.77 – $0.81 | $0.77 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.45 – $0.49 | $0.47 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.49 – $0.53 | $0.38 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.01 – $1.05 | $0.26 | miss |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.63 – $0.67 | $0.26 | miss |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.49 – $0.53 | $0.34 | miss |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.78 – $0.82 | $0.37 | miss |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.29 – $0.33 | $0.23 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 21%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 1.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 66/100, drawdown 67/100, beta 96/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 13% of the last 8 guided quarters · -34.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on same store revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Emphasize growth in same store revenue as a key strategic priority.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company expects same store revenue growth of 2.6% to 3.2% for 2025. However, the financials do not provide specific revenue figures to assess delivery, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company continues to expect to produce same store revenue growth of 2.6% to 3.2% for the full year of 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-09-02Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The Company continues to expect to produce same store revenue growth of 2.6% to 3.2% for the full year of 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The Company reaffirms its third quarter 2025 Blended Rate growth guidance of 2.2% to 2.8%.”
- #2
Manage same store expense growth
CostNew since 2026-05-04Control and manage the growth of expenses in same store operations.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects same store expense growth between 3.0% and 4.0%. The financials do not provide specific expense figures, making it difficult to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“Same store expense growth expected to be between 3.0% and 4.0%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Same store expense growth expected to be between 3.0% and 4.0%.”
- #3
Achieve same store NOI growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target growth in Net Operating Income (NOI) for same store properties.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects same store NOI growth between 0.5% and 2.5%. The financials do not provide specific NOI figures, making it difficult to assess progress, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“Same store NOI growth expected to be between 0.5% and 2.5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Same store NOI growth expected to be between 0.5% and 2.5%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EQR Equity Residential | +3.7 | full | low |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed by Equity Residential under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 61 - 2026-04-1524d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. Settlement of Class Action Litigation As previously reported, Equity Residential (the “Company”) has been named as a defendant in a number of cases filed by private plaintiffs in late 2022 and 2023 alleging antitrust violations by RealPage, Inc., a seller of revenue management software products, and various owners and/or operators of multifamily housing, including us, that have utilized these products. The complaints allege collusion among the defendants to illegally…
legal regulatorynegativescore 30
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.