ERIE
Erie IndemnityNASDAQFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ERIE has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of 1.7 and a medium confidence level of 73.5. The score is influenced by various factors, including a macro score of -7.7 and a quality score of 77.7. The top drivers affecting the score include macroeconomic conditions related to rates, growth, labor, and inflation. This scoring is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.57 → $3.35 (-6.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 41%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −43%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.73 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 92/100.
Sub-scores — vol 49/100, drawdown 15/100, beta 73/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 12.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
12 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ERIE Erie Indemnity | +1.7 | — | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2316d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Erie Indemnity Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and financial information are attached hereto and are incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. On April 24, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. the Company will provide a pre-recorded Webcast that is complementary to the press release announcing finan…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 46 - 2026-04-2316d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. (a) At its meeting on April 21, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors approved the following quarterly dividend on shares of Erie Indemnity Company Class A common stock: Dividend Number: 384 Class A Rate Per Share: $1.4625 Declaration Date: April 21, 2026 Ex-Dividend Date: July 7, 2026 Record Date: July 7, 2026 Payable Date: July 21, 2026 (b) In addition to his re-election to the Board, Jonathan Hirt Hagen was elected Chairman of the Board. Thomas B. Hagen, also re-elected to t…
capital allocationneutralscore 36
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.