ESS
Essex Property TrustNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ESS has a composite score of 19.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation label changed from "fair" to "full," indicating a shift in perception. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, labor, and inflation. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.50 → $1.45 (-3.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain Core FFO guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/28: “Reaffirmed the full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share, with Q2 2026 guidance at $3.92 - $4.04. This consistent reaffirmation suggests a stable outlook, but financials show a decline in revenue from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in revenue growth.
- 2.Focus on same-property revenue growthgrowthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/4: “Estimated Same-Property Portfolio Growth Based on 52,209 Apartment Homes Range Midpoint Net Operating Income 0.80% to 3.40% 2.10%”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company estimated same-property NOI growth at 0.80% to 3.40% for 2026, with a midpoint of 2.10%. Despite this focus, revenue declined from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving growth targets.
- 3.Achieve earnings beatgrowthbehind14% progress
4/28: “The Company issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Companys financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced an earnings beat for Q1 2026, but financials show a decline in revenue from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4. Despite the earnings beat, the revenue trajectory indicates challenges in sustaining growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 20%; 252d 21%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 1.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 64/100, drawdown 67/100, beta 96/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for ESS changed from "fair" to "full." This change is noted as a label change with a severity score of 20.0. Additionally, the forward view indicates several unfavorable scenarios, including a composite delta estimate of -8.03 if rates reverse from -0.37 to +0.37, and -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut, while there are also favorable scenarios with estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 related to sector trends and guidance raises, respectively. The overall risk label remains low, and the confidence label is medium.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain Core FFO guidance
GrowthReaffirmed full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share, with Q2 2026 guidance at $3.92 - $4.04. This consistent reaffirmation suggests a stable outlook, but financials show a decline in revenue from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in revenue growth.
14%CEO/CFO:“Reaffirmed the full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Reaffirmed the full-year guidance ranges for Core FFO per diluted share.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Q1 2026 Core FFO $3.89 - $4.01 $3.95”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Q3 2025 Core FFO N/A $3.89 - $3.99 $3.94 N/A”
- #2
Focus on same-property revenue growth
GrowthEstimated same-property portfolio growth based on 52,209 apartment homes.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company estimated same-property NOI growth at 0.80% to 3.40% for 2026, with a midpoint of 2.10%. Despite this focus, revenue declined from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving growth targets.
14%CEO/CFO:“Estimated Same-Property Portfolio Growth Based on 52,209 Apartment Homes Range Midpoint Net Operating Income 0.80% to 3.40% 2.10%”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Estimated Same-Property Portfolio Growth Based on 52,209 Apartment Homes Range Midpoint Net Operating Income 0.80% to 3.40% 2.10%”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Same-Property Portfolio Growth (1) Revenues 2.90% to 3.40% 3.00% to 3.30% 3.15% -”
- #3
Achieve earnings beat
GrowthThe company announced an earnings beat for the three months ended March 31, 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced an earnings beat for Q1 2026, but financials show a decline in revenue from $473.3M in 2025-Q3 to $404.4M in 2025-Q4. Despite the earnings beat, the revenue trajectory indicates challenges in sustaining growth.
14%CEO/CFO:“The Company issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Companys financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The Company issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Companys financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESS Essex Property Trust | +19 | full | low |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Essex Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and supplemental information announcing the Company’s financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The Company has posted a copy of the press release and supplemental information on the Company’s website at www.essex.com . A copy of the press release and supplemental information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference here…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 56
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.