EXC
ExelonNASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EXC has a composite score of 23.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The management score improved significantly, rising by 9.3 points to 49.8. The overall confidence level is medium at 74.7, with notable drivers including macroeconomic factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.49 (+3.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 3 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Affirm full year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91growthbehind0% progress
4/16: “Exelon reaffirms its previously disclosed 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Exelon has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share. Despite an earnings miss event in 2026-Q1, the company maintains its guidance, indicating confidence in achieving these targets.
- 2.Project $41.7 billion CAPEX over next four yearscapital allocationmixed30% progress
5/6: “Projecting $41.7 billion of capital expenditures over the next four years.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Exelon has announced a significant capital expenditure plan of $41.7 billion over the next four years. This strategic investment indicates a focus on growth and infrastructure development, although financials do not yet reflect the impact of this planned expenditure.
- 3.Achieve EPS growth near top end of 5-7% CAGRgrowthbehind0% progress
5/6: “Operating EPS compounded annual growth near top end of 5-7% from 2025 to 2029.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Exelon targets EPS growth near the top end of 5-7% CAGR from 2025 to 2029. While this ambition is clear, the financials for 2025-Q4 show a net income of $1.02 billion, which is a decrease from $1.5 billion in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards this growth target so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 18%; 252d 18%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −13%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 70/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · management_scoreseverity 23
Management rose by 9.3 points (from 40.5 to 49.8).
As of 2026-05-08, the management score for EXC increased by 9.3 points, rising from 40.5 to 49.8. The signal label changed to "mild_favorable." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is cut, as noted in the trigger text, "If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)." Additionally, there are unfavorable scenarios related to a potential reversal in rates and a weakening sector trend.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Affirm full year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81-$2.91
GrowthExelon reaffirms its 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Exelon has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share. Despite an earnings miss event in 2026-Q1, the company maintains its guidance, indicating confidence in achieving these targets.
0%CEO/CFO:“Exelon reaffirms its previously disclosed 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-16Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-16Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Exelon reaffirms its previously disclosed 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Introducing full year 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings guidance range of $2.81-$2.91 per share.”
- #2
Project $41.7 billion CAPEX over next four years
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-06Exelon projects $41.7 billion of capital expenditures over the next four years.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Exelon has announced a significant capital expenditure plan of $41.7 billion over the next four years. This strategic investment indicates a focus on growth and infrastructure development, although financials do not yet reflect the impact of this planned expenditure.
30%CEO/CFO:“Projecting $41.7 billion of capital expenditures over the next four years.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Projecting $41.7 billion of capital expenditures over the next four years.”
- #3
Achieve EPS growth near top end of 5-7% CAGR
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Exelon aims for operating EPS compounded annual growth near the top end of 5-7% from 2025 to 2029.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Exelon targets EPS growth near the top end of 5-7% CAGR from 2025 to 2029. While this ambition is clear, the financials for 2025-Q4 show a net income of $1.02 billion, which is a decrease from $1.5 billion in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards this growth target so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“Operating EPS compounded annual growth near top end of 5-7% from 2025 to 2029.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Operating EPS compounded annual growth near top end of 5-7% from 2025 to 2029.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXC Exelon | +23 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.