EXE
Expand EnergyNASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EXE has a composite score of 0.8 and a signal label of "mixed." The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macroeconomic outlook with a score of 4.0, but it also faces elevated market risk at 51.9. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.17
- Slope (norm)-0.75
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.34 → $1.16 (-13.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 12 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 4 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Debt reduction of at least $1 billioncapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/17: “Prioritizing the balance sheet with continued debt reduction of at least $1 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently emphasized debt reduction of at least $1 billion. However, the financials show a net income decline from $968M in 2025-Q3 to a loss of $2.68B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress on financial health.
- 2.Invest $2.85 billion for productioncapital allocationmixed44% progress
2/17: “Expect to produce ~7.5 Bcfe/d for ~$2.85 billion of capital.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has maintained a focus on investing $2.85 billion for production. Despite this, revenue fell from $3.69B in 2025-Q2 to -$3.5B in 2025-Q4, showing a declining trajectory in financial performance.
- 3.Run 11 to 12 rigs in 2026supply chainmixed65% progress
2/17: “Expand Energy expects to run between 11 and 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.85 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently aimed to run 11 to 12 rigs. However, the financials show a significant net income drop from $968M in 2025-Q3 to a loss of $2.68B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving operational efficiency.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 25%; 252d 32%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 47/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Debt reduction of at least $1 billion
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Prioritize the balance sheet with continued debt reduction of at least $1 billion in 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management has consistently emphasized debt reduction of at least $1 billion. However, the financials show a net income decline from $968M in 2025-Q3 to a loss of $2.68B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress on financial health.
44%CEO/CFO:“Prioritizing the balance sheet with continued debt reduction of at least $1 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Prioritizing the balance sheet with continued debt reduction of at least $1 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Increasing 2025 net debt paydown to $1.0 billion.”
- #2
Invest $2.85 billion for production
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Invest approximately $2.85 billion in 2026 to achieve a daily production of approximately 7.5 Bcfe/d.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has maintained a focus on investing $2.85 billion for production. Despite this, revenue fell from $3.69B in 2025-Q2 to -$3.5B in 2025-Q4, showing a declining trajectory in financial performance.
44%CEO/CFO:“Expect to produce ~7.5 Bcfe/d for ~$2.85 billion of capital.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Expect to produce ~7.5 Bcfe/d for ~$2.85 billion of capital.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expand Energy reduced its full year 2025 capital expenditures guidance by $75 million to $2.85 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Expand Energy now expects to spend $100 million less capital in 2025, running approximately 11 rigs and investing approximately $2.6 billion.”
- #3
Run 11 to 12 rigs in 2026
Supply chainNew since 2026-05-04Operate between 11 and 12 rigs in 2026 to support production targets.
Watch →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently aimed to run 11 to 12 rigs. However, the financials show a significant net income drop from $968M in 2025-Q3 to a loss of $2.68B in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving operational efficiency.
65%CEO/CFO:“Expand Energy expects to run between 11 and 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.85 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Expand Energy expects to run between 11 and 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.85 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Expand Energy expects to run approximately 12 rigs and invest approximately $2.7 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Expand Energy now expects to spend $100 million less capital in 2025, running approximately 11 rigs.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
18 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXE Expand Energy | +0.8 | — | elevated |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Accordingly, the information contained in the press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 57 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Expand Energy Corporation (the “Company”) has appointed Marcel Teunissen as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective as of April 6, 2026. Mr. Teunissen, age 52, most recently served as President, North America for Parkland Corporation. From 2020 to 2024, he served as Chief…
executive changeneutralscore 38 - 2026-04-1028d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, John D. Gass notified Expand Energy Corporation (the “Company”) that he will not stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) and that he will retire from the Board at the conclusion of the Annual Meeting. Mr. Gass’s decision not to stand…
executive changeneutralscore 30 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
Accordingly, the information contained in the press release shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 11 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Expand Energy Corporation (“Expand Energy”) appointed Michael Wichterich, Chairman of the Board, as Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, replacing Domenic (Nick) J. Dell’Osso, Jr., effective immediately. In connection with his separation, Mr. Dell’Osso also resigned from the Boa…
executive changeneutralscore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.