Exelixis (EXEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.01-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXEL — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-31
Other Events. On August 31, 2026, Exelixis, inc. (Exelixis) announced that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (Court of Appeals) issued a decision in Exelixis, Inc. v. MSN Laboratories Private Limited et al. , Appeal No. 25-1236, affirming the judgment of the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware that U.S. Patent Nos. 11,091,439, 11,091,440 and 11,098,015 are not invalid. The Court of Appeals also dismissed as moot MSN’s appeal relating to the validity of U.S. Patent…
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could affect Exelixis' performance and how investors feel.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: High operating income shows good financial health and growth.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $250 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $200 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback could show management's trust in the company's value.
Supportive ifCompletion of the current $750 million stock repurchase program by August 2026.
Worry ifDelays or cuts in the stock buyback program were announced.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows trust in the company's finances and can help share prices.
Supportive ifExelixis finishes the $750 million stock buyback by the end of July 2026.
Worry ifExelixis does not complete the stock repurchase program by the end of July 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth keeps investors confident. It also helps the company stay valuable.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady growth in cabozantinib revenues is key for financial health. It shows market demand and sales success.
Supportive ifCabozantinib U.S. net product revenues exceed $573 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCabozantinib U.S. net product revenues fall below $550 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,647 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.