EXPE
Expedia GroupNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, EXPE has a composite score of 27.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The company momentum score increased significantly by 60.0 points to 54.2, while the composite insight score rose by 12.9 points to 27.7. The overall confidence level is medium at 73.9, but the risk label is elevated, indicating potential concerns. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.77
- Slope (norm)0.14
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.96 → $5.01 (+0.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.9% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Expand Adjusted EBITDA marginscostbehind0% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins y/y with a 368 basis point increase in Q4.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 368 basis points in Q4 2025, reaching 23.9%. This reflects a consistent focus on margin expansion, with substantive delivery in the latest quarter.
- 2.Increase gross bookingsgrowthmixed59% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Total gross bookings and revenue both grew 11% in the fourth quarter.'”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross bookings grew 11% in Q4 2025, reaching $27,003 million. This consistent growth aligns with management's strategic focus on increasing bookings, showing substantive delivery.
- 3.Enhance shareholder returnscapital allocationmixed30% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. This aligns with management's stated capital allocation strategy, showing substantive delivery.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 47%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −37%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 21/100, drawdown 25/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 100
Company momentum rose by 60.0 points (from -5.8 to 54.2).
- score change · composite_insight_scoreseverity 26
Composite insight rose by 12.9 points (from 14.8 to 27.7).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for EXPE rose by 60.0 points, increasing from -5.8 to 54.2. The composite insight score also increased by 12.9 points, moving from 14.8 to 27.7. The signal label transitioned to "mild_favorable." The overall scores indicate a medium confidence level and elevated risk.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Expand Adjusted EBITDA margins
CostFocus on expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 368 basis points in Q4 2025, reaching 23.9%. This reflects a consistent focus on margin expansion, with substantive delivery in the latest quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 368 basis points in Q4 20250%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins y/y with a 368 basis point increase in Q4.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins y/y with a 368 basis point increase in Q4.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 2% for the full year.'”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'We are focused on margin expansion through operational efficiencies.'”
- #2
Increase gross bookings
GrowthDrive growth in gross bookings through strategic market initiatives and partnerships.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross bookings grew 11% in Q4 2025, reaching $27,003 million. This consistent growth aligns with management's strategic focus on increasing bookings, showing substantive delivery.
Gross bookings grew 11% in Q4 202559%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Total gross bookings and revenue both grew 11% in the fourth quarter.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Total gross bookings and revenue both grew 11% in the fourth quarter.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'Gross bookings increased by 8% year-over-year.'”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“CEO: 'We are seeing strong growth in gross bookings across our segments.'”
- #3
Enhance shareholder returns
Capital allocationEnhance shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.
MixedStated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. This aligns with management's stated capital allocation strategy, showing substantive delivery.
Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 202530%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (2)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Repurchased approximately 9 million shares for $1.7 billion in 2025.'”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“CEO: 'We are committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXPE Expedia Group | +28 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. (“ Expedia Group ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “ Press Release ”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deeme…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 77 - 2026-04-2315d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Financial Officer On April 17, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ Expedia Group ”) and Scott Schenkel agreed that Mr. Schenkel would step down as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective as of May 11, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”). Mr. Schenkel’s departure is not the result of any disagreement with the Compan…
executive changeneutralscore 56 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Expedia Group's Executive Committee, acting on behalf of its Board of Directors, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.48 per share of outstanding common stock payable on June 18, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 28, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 51 - 2026-04-1028d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Notes Offering On April 8, 2026, Expedia Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with BofA Securities, Inc. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters listed in Schedule 1 thereto (the “ Underwriters ”), pursuant to which the Underwriters agreed to purchase from the Company $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ Notes ”). The Underwriting…
capital allocationpositivescore 27 - 2026-03-301mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Revolving Credit Facility On March 27, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Expedia Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a Credit Agreement (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, the “ Revolving Credit Facility ”) among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto from time to time, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “ Administrative Agent ”). The ob…
capital allocationneutralscore 27
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.