F
Ford Motor CompanyNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, F has a composite score of 19.6 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.8 and is driven by macro factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The overall risk is categorized as moderate, with a valuation score of 86.9 indicating it is considered inexpensive. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.24
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.36 (-7.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 7 cut, 11 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.2% above current price.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-15F — officer changeimpact 0.54
- 2025-12-12F — officer changeimpact 0.38
- 2026-04-15F — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.29
- 2026-03-13F — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
- 2026-04-15F — M&A activity — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreementimpact 0.25
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase adjusted EBIT guidancegrowthbehind10% progress
4/29: “The company raised its adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBIT guidance increased from $8.0 billion to $10.5 billion, reflecting management's focus on growth. However, the financials show mixed results with revenue fluctuating from $50.5 billion in 2025-Q3 to $41.5 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the higher EBIT target.
- 2.Maintain capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed40% progress
4/29: “Capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion are planned for 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance maintained at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Despite this, cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a significant drop to -$13.4 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining consistent capital allocation.
- 3.Achieve adjusted free cash flow targetcapital allocationmixed40% progress
4/29: “The company expects adjusted free cash flow of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance set at $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion. However, cash from operating activities was negative at -$13.4 billion in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited progress towards achieving the free cash flow target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase adjusted EBIT guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ford aims to increase its adjusted EBIT guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBIT guidance increased from $8.0 billion to $10.5 billion, reflecting management's focus on growth. However, the financials show mixed results with revenue fluctuating from $50.5 billion in 2025-Q3 to $41.5 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the higher EBIT target.
10%CEO/CFO:“The company raised its adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company raised its adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Outlook for full-year 2026 includes adjusted EBIT of $8.0 billion to $10.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ford plans to maintain its capital expenditures within the $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion range for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance maintained at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Despite this, cash from operating activities showed volatility, with a significant drop to -$13.4 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining consistent capital allocation.
40%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion are planned for 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion are planned for 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Outlook for full-year 2026 includes capital spending of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.”
- #3
Achieve adjusted free cash flow target
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ford aims to achieve an adjusted free cash flow target of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow guidance set at $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion. However, cash from operating activities was negative at -$13.4 billion in 2025-Q4, suggesting limited progress towards achieving the free cash flow target.
40%CEO/CFO:“The company expects adjusted free cash flow of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company expects adjusted free cash flow of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Outlook for full-year 2026 includes adjusted FCF of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
20 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
F Ford Motor Company | +20 | inexpensive | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-29)-16 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . Ford Motor Company (“Ford” or “Company”) hereby incorporates by reference its news release dated April 29, 2026, which is furnished as Exhibit 99 hereto. Beginning at 5:00 p.m. on April 29, 2026, Ford President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley, Chief Financial Officer Sherry House, and other members of Ford’s senior management team will host a conference call to discuss Ford’s first quarter 2026 financial results. Investors may access the…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 59 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement .
mna activitypositivescore 38 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On April 15, 2026, Ford Motor Company (the “Company”) was notified that J. Douglas Field, Chief EV, Digital, and Design Officer, has elected to leave the Company next month after a period of transition.
executive changeneutralscore 33 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . On April 15, 2026, Ford Motor Company (“Ford” or “Company”) entered into the Twenty-Third Amendment (the “Twenty-Third Amendment”) to its Credit Agreement dated as of December 15, 2006, as amended and restated as of November 24, 2009, as amended and restated as of April 30, 2014, as amended and restated as of April 30, 2015, and as further amended and restated as of September 29…
capital allocationnegativescore 30 - 2026-03-131mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events . Ford Motor Company (“Ford” or the “Company”) is undertaking an anti-dilutive share repurchase program to offset the dilutive effect of share-based compensation granted during 2026 and the dilutive effect of settling with shares our obligations in excess of the aggregate principal amount of our 0.00% Senior Convertible Notes due March 15, 2026 that are converted. The plan authorizes repurchases of up to 31.7 million shares of Ford Common Stock. The Company may repurchase shares…
capital allocationpositivescore 14
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.