FAST
FastenalNASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FAST has a composite score of 5.2 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 79.5. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with notable influences from potential guidance changes and sector trends. The overall risk is labeled as moderate, and valuation is considered expensive at 23.9.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.40
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.32 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026capital allocationmixed35% progress
4/13: “For 2026, we continue to expect our investment in property and equipment to be within a range of $310.0 to $330.0.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. CAPEX guidance for 2026 remains at $310M to $330M. Operating cash flow was $378.4M in 2026-Q1, up 44.3% from 2025-Q1, indicating financial capacity to meet this guidance. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining the guidance.
- 2.Increase sales effectiveness through key account winsgrowthmixed65% progress
4/13: “Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including increased sales effectiveness through key account wins.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Net sales increased by $242.2M, or 12.4%, in 2026-Q1 compared to 2025-Q1, reflecting improved customer contract signings and strategic initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering on increased sales effectiveness.
- 3.Expand technology and customer site growthgrowthmixed65% progress
4/13: “Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including expansion of technology and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings increased by 8.3% in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in technology expansion and customer site growth. The trajectory shows delivering on this strategic initiative.
- 4.Implement stock unit planstalentwatchprovisional
4/29: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.82 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 56/100, beta 82/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain CAPEX guidance for 2026
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue to expect investment in property and equipment to be within $310M to $330M for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. CAPEX guidance for 2026 remains at $310M to $330M. Operating cash flow was $378.4M in 2026-Q1, up 44.3% from 2025-Q1, indicating financial capacity to meet this guidance. The trajectory is delivering on maintaining the guidance.
35%CEO/CFO:“For 2026, we continue to expect our investment in property and equipment to be within a range of $310.0 to $330.0.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-13Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For 2026, we continue to expect our investment in property and equipment to be within a range of $310.0 to $330.0.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For 2026, we expect our investment in property and equipment to be within a range of $310.0 to $330.0.”
- #2
Increase sales effectiveness through key account wins
GrowthFocus on strategic initiatives to enhance sales effectiveness by securing key account wins.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Net sales increased by $242.2M, or 12.4%, in 2026-Q1 compared to 2025-Q1, reflecting improved customer contract signings and strategic initiatives. The trajectory shows delivering on increased sales effectiveness.
Net sales increased $242.2M, or 12.4%, in 2026-Q165%CEO/CFO:“Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including increased sales effectiveness through key account wins.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-13Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-13Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including increased sales effectiveness through key account wins.”
- #3
Expand technology and customer site growth
GrowthFocus on expanding technology and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings increased by 8.3% in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in technology expansion and customer site growth. The trajectory shows delivering on this strategic initiative.
Weighted FASTBin/FASTVend signings increased 8.3% in 2026-Q165%CEO/CFO:“Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including expansion of technology and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-13Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-13Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Continued progress on strategic initiatives, including expansion of technology and deeper penetration through new customer site growth.”
- #4
Implement stock unit plans
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Approved the Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”8-KSource dated 2026-04-29First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FAST Fastenal | +5.2 | expensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On April 23, 2026, Fastenal Company ('Fastenal') held its annual meeting of shareholders in Winona, Minnesota ('2026 Annual Meeting'). At the 2026 Annual Meeting, Fastenal's shareholders approved the Fastenal Company Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and the Fastenal Company Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan. Descript…
executive changeneutralscore 46 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 13, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 37 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing the results of its most recently ended fiscal quarter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 5 - 2025-12-224mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Executive Officer and Director On December 19, 2025, Daniel L. Florness, the Chief Executive Officer ('CEO') of Fastenal Company ('Fastenal') and a director of Fastenal's Board of Directors (the 'Board'), submitted a letter to the Board advising them of the following: (1) Mr. Florness' decision to voluntarily step out of his ro…
executive changeneutralscore 3 - 2025-12-224mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 22, 2025, Fastenal issued a press release announcing the events described in Item 5.02, a copy of which is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the 'Exchange Act'), or otherwise subject to t…
legal regulatorynegativescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.