Fastenal (FAST)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-07-08
$46.51-1.27%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track FAST free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Trading Companies & Distributors: fringe margins under pressure (3q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 11% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 32% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskFAST's growth depends on strong demand in the industrial sector. Revenue grew 12% year over year, and recent performance has been strong. It trades at 41× P/E, above the 27× peer median, indicating high expectations. The risk is a potential guidance cut, with a 21% chance of missing estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-08. FAST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering FAST (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FAST in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.51. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Trading Companies & Distributors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-08. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $46.51
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $46.51.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.