Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-07-09
$60.47+5.17%
Close 2026-07-09 · 1-day change
Reading FCX? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track FCX free→NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-07-09
Reading FCX? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track FCX free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 25% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFCX's growth depends on increasing copper production and managing capital expenditures. Recent earnings showed steady performance, with revenue growth of 8% year over year and a beat in Q1 2026. It trades at 28× P/E, above the peer median of 23×, suggesting it looks expensive. The risk comes from a guidance cut, which has an 18% chance of happening. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-09. FCX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 23 analysts currently covering FCX (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FCX in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.47. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Guidance cut raises concerns about future performance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-09. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $60.47
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $60.47.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Increase copper production
Output pressure may hinder copper production growth.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures
Dividend declaration indicates strong cash flow management.
Threatens: Increase copper production
Cuts 2026 output outlook due to Grasberg delays.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures
Divestment aligns with managing capital expenditures.
Threatens: Optimize cash costs
Unit cash costs spiking threatens cost optimization objective.
