FCX
Freeport-McMoRanNYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FCX has a composite score of 6.4 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 74.9, with elevated market risk at 60.7. Key drivers include macro factors such as growth, inflation, labor, and rates, while the sector score is 8.8. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.17
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.68 → $0.56 (-17.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 4 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase copper productiongrowthbehind14% progress
4/23: “Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects consolidated sales to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $8.5 billion in 2023-Q4 to $4.58 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in increasing copper production so far.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/23: “Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for the year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for 2026, down from $4.5 billion in 2025. This indicates a focus on managing capex, but the financials show a decline in operating income from $2.36 billion in 2023-Q4 to $826 million in 2025-Q4, suggesting mixed results.
- 3.Optimize cash costscostbehind14% progress
4/23: “Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.95 per pound of copper for the year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management expects average unit net cash costs to rise to $1.95 per pound of copper in 2026 from $1.50 in 2025. Despite this focus, operating income fell from $2.36 billion in 2023-Q4 to $826 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in optimizing costs.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 62%; 252d 47%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 21/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase copper production
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing copper production to meet growing demand.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects consolidated sales to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $8.5 billion in 2023-Q4 to $4.58 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in increasing copper production so far.
14%CEO/CFO:“Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain disciplined capital expenditures to support strategic projects.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for 2026, down from $4.5 billion in 2025. This indicates a focus on managing capex, but the financials show a decline in operating income from $2.36 billion in 2023-Q4 to $826 million in 2025-Q4, suggesting mixed results.
44%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for the year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for the year 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For the year 2025, capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.5 billion.”
- #3
Optimize cash costs
CostNew since 2026-05-04Continue efforts to optimize cash costs to improve profitability.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management expects average unit net cash costs to rise to $1.95 per pound of copper in 2026 from $1.50 in 2025. Despite this focus, operating income fell from $2.36 billion in 2023-Q4 to $826 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in optimizing costs.
14%CEO/CFO:“Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.95 per pound of copper for the year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-23Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.95 per pound of copper for the year 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.50 per pound of copper for the year 2025.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
CRH CRH plc | +9.4 | inexpensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) issued a press release dated April 23, 2026, announcing its first-quarter 2026 financial and operating results. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 51 - 2026-03-231mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On March 20, 2026, Robert W. Dudley, a member of the Board of Directors (the Board) of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (the Company), informed the Lead Independent Director and the Chairman of the Board he will not stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Mr. Dudley will serve the remainder of his current term, which wi…
executive changeneutralscore 19 - 2026-01-223mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) issued a press release dated January 22, 2026, announcing its fourth-quarter and year ended 2025 financial and operating results. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.