FDX
FedExNYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FDX has a composite score of 28.6, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 78.6 and reflects low market risk at 23.9. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors related to growth and labor, with the sector score at 16.7 indicating challenges in that area. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.15
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.88 → $5.88 (-0.1% / 30d). 8 raised, 13 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026otheron track100% progress
3/19: “FedEx Freight Separation On Track for June 1, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The spin-off of FedEx Freight is on track for June 1, 2026. FedEx Freight issued $3.7 billion of senior notes to facilitate the separation. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
- 2.Achieve $1B in cost reductionscostbehind7% progress
3/19: “Permanent cost reductions of more than $1 billion in transformation-related savings.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. FedEx aims for over $1 billion in cost reductions through transformation initiatives. Operating income improved from $1.18B in 2026-Q1 to $1.35B in 2026-Q3, indicating progress.
- 3.Capex not exceeding $4.1B for FY 2026capital allocationmixed65% progress
3/19: “Capital spending of no more than $4.1 billion, with a priority on network optimization.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. FedEx plans to cap capital expenditures at $4.1 billion for FY 2026, focusing on network optimization. This aligns with the revised guidance from $4.5 billion, showing commitment to disciplined capital allocation.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 43%; 252d 29%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 52/100, drawdown 77/100, beta 94/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 15.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026
OtherComplete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
On trackStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The spin-off of FedEx Freight is on track for June 1, 2026. FedEx Freight issued $3.7 billion of senior notes to facilitate the separation. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
100%CEO/CFO:“FedEx Freight Separation On Track for June 1, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-19Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-19Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“FedEx Freight Separation On Track for June 1, 2026.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“FedEx announced the spin-off of FedEx Freight.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Board approved the spin-off of FedEx Freight.”
- #2
Achieve $1B in cost reductions
CostImplement transformation initiatives to achieve over $1 billion in cost reductions.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. FedEx aims for over $1 billion in cost reductions through transformation initiatives. Operating income improved from $1.18B in 2026-Q1 to $1.35B in 2026-Q3, indicating progress.
7%CEO/CFO:“Permanent cost reductions of more than $1 billion in transformation-related savings.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-19Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-19Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Permanent cost reductions of more than $1 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Transformation initiatives aimed at $1 billion savings.”
- 2025-Q2Press release
“Targeting $1 billion in cost reductions.”
- #3
Capex not exceeding $4.1B for FY 2026
Capital allocationLimit capital expenditures to no more than $4.1 billion, focusing on network optimization.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. FedEx plans to cap capital expenditures at $4.1 billion for FY 2026, focusing on network optimization. This aligns with the revised guidance from $4.5 billion, showing commitment to disciplined capital allocation.
65%CEO/CFO:“Capital spending of no more than $4.1 billion, with a priority on network optimization.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-19Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-19Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Capital spending of no more than $4.1 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Capex of $4.5 billion, focusing on network optimization.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FDX FedEx | +29 | inexpensive | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-03-19)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-1325d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, FedEx Corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”) announced that John W. Dietrich will step down as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on June 1, 2026, and will depart the Company on July 31, 2026. Mr. Dietrich’s departure is not the result of any disagreement with the Company with respect to any matter relating to t…
executive changeneutralscore 45 - 2026-03-191mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and General Instruction B.2 thereunder. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. SECTION 2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 23 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, the Board of Directors of FedEx Corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company"), upon the recommendation of its Compensation and Human Resources Committee, approved amendments to the Company’s FY25–FY27 long term incentive plan and FY26–FY28 long-term incentive plan, which are based on the Company's current May 31 fiscal year end (collectively, the “LTI Plans”),…
executive changeneutralscore 15 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 9, 2026, InPost S.A. (“InPost”) and a consortium consisting of FedEx Corporation, through a wholly-owned subsidiary (together, “FedEx”), IS Iris Financial Investor S.à r.l (“Advent”), A&R Investments Limited (“A&R Investments”), and PPF Group N.V. (together with its subsidiaries, “PPF”) announced a conditional agreement on an intended recommended all-cash public offer for all issued and outstanding shares of InPost at an offer price of €15.60 (cum dividend) per share…
capital allocationneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 27, 2026, FedEx announced the appointment of Scott L. Ray as Chief Operating Officer, United States and Canada – Elect, of Federal Express Corporation (“FEC”), effective February 1, 2026, and Chief Operating Officer, United States and Canada, of FEC, effective June 1, 2026. As previously announced on May 19, 2025, John A. Smith, who curr…
executive changeneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.