FE
FirstEnergyNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FE has a composite score of 24.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is driven by a high confidence level of 83.8, with notable strengths in valuation (69.0) and quality (63.7). However, the sector score is weak at -0.7, and macro factors such as rates, labor, inflation, and growth are identified as top drivers influencing the overall assessment.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.58 (+6.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 47% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm long-term EPS growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Reaffirming Long-Term Core EPS(1) CAGR near the top end of 6-8% (2026-2030).”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite reaffirming the long-term EPS growth target of 6-8% CAGR, financials show mixed results: net income decreased from $441M in 2025-Q3 to $16M in 2025-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Maintain 2026 Core Earnings guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “FirstEnergy reaffirmed its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company maintains its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.62 to $2.82, but recent financials show a decline in net income from $441M in 2025-Q3 to $16M in 2025-Q4. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-30 | $0.70 – $0.80 | $0.79 | inside |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.56 – $0.66 | $0.60 | inside |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.40 – $0.50 | $0.47 | inside |
| 2023-09-30 | $0.80 – $0.90 | $0.88 | inside |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.48 – $0.58 | $0.55 | inside |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.50 – $0.60 | $0.56 | inside |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.85 – $0.95 | $0.85 | inside |
| 2024-12-31 | $2.61 – $2.71 | $0.67 | miss |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 19%; 252d 15%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 75/100, drawdown 71/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · -7.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm long-term EPS growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04FirstEnergy aims to achieve a long-term Core EPS CAGR near the top end of 6-8% from 2026 to 2030.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite reaffirming the long-term EPS growth target of 6-8% CAGR, financials show mixed results: net income decreased from $441M in 2025-Q3 to $16M in 2025-Q4. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
0%CEO/CFO:“Reaffirming Long-Term Core EPS(1) CAGR near the top end of 6-8% (2026-2030).”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Reaffirming Long-Term Core EPS(1) CAGR near the top end of 6-8% (2026-2030).”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“its 6-8% Core EPS CAGR through 2029, guiding to the upper half of the range.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“FirstEnergy also affirmed its 6-8% compounded annual Core Earnings growth rate target from 2025 through 2029.”
- #2
Maintain 2026 Core Earnings guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04FirstEnergy reaffirms its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company maintains its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.62 to $2.82, but recent financials show a decline in net income from $441M in 2025-Q3 to $16M in 2025-Q4. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“FirstEnergy reaffirmed its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“FirstEnergy reaffirmed its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“FirstEnergy reaffirmed its 2026 Core Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“FirstEnergy initiated 2026 Core (non-GAAP) Earnings guidance of $2.62 to $2.82 per share.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FE FirstEnergy | +25 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, FirstEnergy Corp. (“FirstEnergy” or the “Company”) issued a news release (the “Release”) announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company has presented certain financial information in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and also on…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 51
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.