FICO
Fair IsaacNYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FICO has a composite score of 34.8 and a signal label of "favorable." This score is influenced by various factors, including a medium confidence level of 78.8 and a high market risk score of 80.4. The top drivers affecting the score include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. The assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.15
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $11.81 → $11.69 (-1.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 9 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 55.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2025-08-28FICO — CEO transitionimpact 0.40
- 2026-03-20FICO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.35
- 2026-03-20FICO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.27
- 2026-03-11FICO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
- 2026-03-11FICO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase full year revenue guidancegrowthmixed65% progress
4/28: “We are pleased to announce that we are raising our full year guidance.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $2.35B in 2025-Q4 to $2.45B in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering as management has consistently raised guidance, reflecting confidence in growth.
- 2.Achieve stronger growth than FY25growthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/28: “We reiterate our fiscal year 2026 guidance, which yields stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.98B in FY25 to $2.45B guidance for FY26. Management's focus on stronger growth is reflected in the increased guidance, indicating positive trajectory.
- 3.Announce share buyback programcapital allocationmixed41% progress
3/11: “Fair Isaac Corporation announced the pricing of its private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. $1 billion senior notes issued for buyback. This capital allocation move indicates management's commitment to returning value to shareholders, though the impact on share count is yet to be seen.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 64%; 252d 55%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −58%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 9/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
High-volatility growth — strong fundamentals + high realized vol. Typical day ±1.8%.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 51.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase full year revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase the full year revenue guidance for fiscal 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $2.35B in 2025-Q4 to $2.45B in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering as management has consistently raised guidance, reflecting confidence in growth.
Revenue guidance increased from $2.35B to $2.45B65%CEO/CFO:“We are pleased to announce that we are raising our full year guidance.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q2Press release
“We are pleased to announce that we are raising our full year guidance.”
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We reiterate our fiscal year 2026 guidance, which yields stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company is providing the following guidance for fiscal 2026: Revenues $2.35 billion.”
- #2
Achieve stronger growth than FY25
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to achieve stronger growth in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.98B in FY25 to $2.45B guidance for FY26. Management's focus on stronger growth is reflected in the increased guidance, indicating positive trajectory.
Revenue grew from $1.98B in FY25 to $2.45B guidance for FY2665%CEO/CFO:“We reiterate our fiscal year 2026 guidance, which yields stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We reiterate our fiscal year 2026 guidance, which yields stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company is providing the following guidance for fiscal 2026: Revenues $2.35 billion.”
- #3
Announce share buyback program
Capital allocationManagement announced a share buyback program funded by a $1 billion senior notes offering.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. $1 billion senior notes issued for buyback. This capital allocation move indicates management's commitment to returning value to shareholders, though the impact on share count is yet to be seen.
$1 billion senior notes issued for buyback41%CEO/CFO:“Fair Isaac Corporation announced the pricing of its private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-11Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-11Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Fair Isaac Corporation announced the pricing of its private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FICO Fair Isaac | +35 | fair | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-28)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. See the Company’s press release dated April 28, 2026, which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference in this
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 57 - 2026-03-201mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Offering of Senior Notes On March 20, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation (the “Company”) closed its previously announced private offering to eligible purchasers of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.250% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to the Indenture dated as of March 20, 2026 (the “Indenture”), by and between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”). The Comp…
capital allocationpositivescore 21 - 2026-03-201mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 17 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 11, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of its private offering to eligible purchasers of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes Offering”). In accordance with Rule 135(c) of the Securities Act, a copy of this press release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Accordingly, this notice is not intended to and does not constitute an offer to sell nor a…
capital allocationpositivescore 14 - 2026-03-111mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On March 11, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that it had commenced a private offering (the “Notes Offering”) to eligible purchasers of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). In accordance with Rule 135(c) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), a copy of this press release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Accordingly, this notice is…
capital allocationpositivescore 13
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.