First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.35+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
FNRN — dividend update
Dated 2026-01-30
OTHER EVENTS On January 22, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a 5% stock dividend, payable March 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows the company can keep making money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $20.8M or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue drops below $20M.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact First Northern's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: The new stock repurchase program could boost share value and investor confidence.
Supportive ifFirst Northern announces the first stock repurchase under the new program.
Worry ifNo stock repurchases reported by the end of 2026-Q3.
Why it matters: Good net income helps the company grow and builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported as positive.
Worry ifQ3 net income shows a loss.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$56 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $112 loss on $10,000 · 1.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,176 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new stock repurchase program could support share price and investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company reports buying back at least 5% of its shares.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth is important for the bank's profits and market share.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is below $20M for two straight quarters.
Less concerning ifQuarterly revenue stays above $20M for two straight quarters.