First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.89-2.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
FNRN — dividend update
Dated 2026-01-30
OTHER EVENTS On January 22, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a 5% stock dividend, payable March 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026.
Why it matters: One resolved loan cut nonaccrual loans by 25.6% in Q3. A rise would show whether credit trouble remains elsewhere.
Worry ifQ4 nonaccrual loans rise from the Q3 level of about $3.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonaccrual loans stay at or below about $3.5 million, with no new large nonaccrual loan reported.
Why it matters: Loans grew 14.7% annualized in Q3. Continued growth would support management's plan to grow loans while earning a profit.
Supportive ifQ4 loans grow at an annualized rate above 10%, with positive net income.
Worry ifQ4 loans grow at an annualized rate below 6.5%, or net income turns negative.
Why it matters: The bank finished its core system upgrade, but project costs raised Q3 expenses. Lower costs would show the upgrade is starting to pay off.
Supportive ifQ4 non-interest expense is below $12.706 million. Management says system costs fell after the upgrade.
Worry ifQ4 non-interest expense is above $12.706 million. Or management reports more upgrade costs beyond Q4.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$58 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $156 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,463 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.