Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fermi Inc (FRMI)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.82-10.78%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.06 → 0.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective management of capital allocation | A supporting condition in Fermi Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain share buyback program and manage convertible notes effectively. | Intact | failure to execute share buyback or mismanagement of convertible notes | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth story rather than an established compounder. The multi-year view is at a watch stage: operating results have improved, but recent performance remains weak and management execution is described as volatile.
The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or a clear account of market expectations, so whether FRMI looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.
Over the past several quarters, operating income and net losses have improved substantially, and the latest cited quarter included a solid earnings beat. Near term, however, earnings have been erratic and the snapshot flags meaningful risk of another miss. The new 15-year TensorWave lease could support future operating income, but phased delivery starts in Q4 2027 and progress cannot yet be assessed.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued loss reduction and successful delivery of the TensorWave project, including its stated project-level margin. In the near term, another earnings beat could support improving estimates, while misses at major real estate peers could weaken the sector backdrop. Fed rate cuts would be a possible tailwind, but the snapshot does not establish that they will occur.
FRMI has shown operating improvement and announced a substantial long-term lease, but weak recent performance, volatile execution, and limited evidence on valuation leave the 1-3 year thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “The Company defines expected Project NOI as expected fixed lease payments under the lease (base rent and fixed capacity charges, including fixed contractu al escalators) less expected non - reimbursable operating expenses of the data center and the power generation assets that serve it, including operations and maintenance, long - term service agreement costs, insurance, property taxes, ground rent, an allocation of campus common area costs and an operating cost contingency.” “Expected Project NOI margin is expected Project NOI divided by ex pec ted fixed lease payments.”
Stability in executive leadership | A supporting condition in Fermi Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further significant executive departures. | Intact | another significant executive departure occurs | 0 significant executive departures vs 0 allowed Recent filings show CEO and CFO transitions as appointments, not departures. No significant executive departures reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income must continue to improve | is improving its operating income, reducing losses significantly. | Intact | operating income worsens beyond -$30 million next quarter | Operating income: $-26.759M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$26.8 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026-26,759,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “The Company defines expected Project NOI as expected fixed lease payments under the lease (base rent and fixed capacity charges, including fixed contractu al escalators) less expected non - reimbursable operating expenses of the data center and the power generation assets that serve it, including operations and maintenance, long - term service agreement costs, insurance, property taxes, ground rent, an allocation of campus common area costs and an operating cost contingency.” “Expected Project NOI margin is expected Project NOI divided by ex pec ted fixed lease payments.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $0.06 · observed estimates
$0.46B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.06 | $457,455,977 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.06 | $498,281,973 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.06 | $498,265,307 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.06 | $498,265,307 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.06 | $498,265,307 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.06 | $438,265,307 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.06 | $438,265,307 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.06 | $438,265,307 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.06 | $402,781,973 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.06 | $402,709,240 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.