FSLR
First SolarNASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FSLR has a composite score of 6.9, indicating a mixed signal with medium confidence. The score is influenced by various factors, including an elevated market risk score of 73.5 and a low sector score of 21.4. The top drivers affecting the score include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.20 → $2.91 (-30.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 20 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.2% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-02-19FSLR — share buyback announcedimpact 0.32
- 2026-02-19FSLR — capital allocation — Creation of Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation with an Off-Balance…impact 0.25
- 2025-01-10FSLR — CFO transitionimpact 0.21
- 2025-03-14FSLR — officer changeimpact 0.18
- 2026-02-19FSLR — M&A activityimpact 0.17
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain 2026 revenue guidancegrowthbehind4% progress
4/30: “Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B Unchanged.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.04B in 2026-Q1, down from $1.68B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $4.9B to $5.2B annual target, indicating challenges in maintaining guidance.
- 2.Control operating expensescostmixed60% progress
4/30: “Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $345M in 2026-Q1, down from $548M in 2025-Q4. The focus on controlling expenses is on track, but the decline in operating income suggests pressure on maintaining margins.
- 3.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed34% progress
4/30: “Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B Unchanged.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for capital expenditures remains at $0.8B to $1.0B. However, the lack of specific quarterly capex figures in the financials limits visibility into current spending levels, indicating a need for more detailed reporting to assess adherence.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 44%; 252d 60%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 30/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 6.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain 2026 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Continue efforts to achieve the 2026 revenue guidance of $4.9B to $5.2B.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $1.04B in 2026-Q1, down from $1.68B in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $4.9B to $5.2B annual target, indicating challenges in maintaining guidance.
4%CEO/CFO:“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B Unchanged.”10-QSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q110-Q
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B Unchanged.”
- 2025-Q410-Q
“The complete 2026 guidance is as follows: 2026 Guidance (1) ... Net Sales $4.9B to $5.2B”
- #2
Control operating expenses
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on managing operating expenses within the guidance range of $610M to $635M.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $345M in 2026-Q1, down from $548M in 2025-Q4. The focus on controlling expenses is on track, but the decline in operating income suggests pressure on maintaining margins.
60%CEO/CFO:“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”10-QSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q110-Q
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
- 2025-Q410-Q
“Operating Expenses (2) $610M to $635M Unchanged.”
- #3
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Ensure capital expenditures remain within the 2026 guidance of $0.8B to $1.0B.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for capital expenditures remains at $0.8B to $1.0B. However, the lack of specific quarterly capex figures in the financials limits visibility into current spending levels, indicating a need for more detailed reporting to assess adherence.
34%CEO/CFO:“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B Unchanged.”10-QSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q110-Q
“Our 2026 guidance remains unchanged and is summarized below: ... Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B Unchanged.”
- 2025-Q410-Q
“Capital Expenditures $0.8B to $1.0B”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FSLR First Solar | +6.9 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherw…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 66 - 2026-02-242mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 12 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 13, 2026, First Solar, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Revolving Credit and Guaranty Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, the several banks and other financial institutions or entities from time to time parties thereto (the “Lenders”), and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides the Company with a se…
capital allocationpositivescore 11 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation with an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 9 - 2026-02-192mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Agreement On February 13, 2026, substantially concurrently with the Company’s entry into the Credit Agreement, the Company voluntarily terminated its existing senior secured revolving credit agreement (the “Existing Credit Agreement”), dated as of June 30, 2023 and as amended from time to time, among the Company, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, the several banks and other financial institutions or entities from time to time parties thereto, and JPMorg…
mna activitynegativescore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.