FTNT
FortinetNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FTNT has a favorable signal label with a composite score of 38.5. The company momentum score increased significantly by 16.2 points to 84.8, while the valuation score decreased by 13.3 points to 51.4. The high confidence level of 83.2 indicates strong reliability in the analysis. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.70 → $0.74 (+6.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 19 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 16 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase annual revenue to $7.79B in 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/6: “For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects revenue in the range of $7.710 billion to $7.870 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 increased from $7.5B-$7.7B to $7.71B-$7.87B, indicating a growth trajectory from $6.78B in 2025. The company is delivering on its growth priority with upward revenue guidance.
- 2.Achieve EPS of $3.13 in 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/6: “For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.10 to $3.16.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 increased from $2.94-$3.00 to $3.10-$3.16, reflecting a positive trajectory. The company is on track to achieve its EPS target with upward guidance revisions.
- 3.Maintain strong cash flow from operationscapital allocationmixed35% progress
2/25: “Cash from operating activities was $620.2 million in Q4 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations ranged from $451.9M to $655.2M in 2025, indicating strong operational cash flow. The company is maintaining its focus on cash flow to support growth and investment.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-30 | $0.33 – $0.35 | $0.38 | beat |
| 2023-09-30 | $0.35 – $0.37 | $0.41 | beat |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.37 – $0.39 | $0.43 | beat |
| 2024-06-30 | $0.39 – $0.41 | $0.57 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.50 – $0.52 | $0.63 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.58 – $0.60 | $0.64 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.62 – $0.64 | $0.74 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.59 – $0.63 | $0.82 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 64%; 252d 45%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −31%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 26/100, drawdown 38/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 27
Company momentum rose by 16.2 points (from 68.6 to 84.8).
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 27
Valuation fell by 13.3 points (from 64.7 to 51.4).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for FTNT rose by 16.2 points, increasing from 68.6 to 84.8. In contrast, the valuation score fell by 13.3 points, decreasing from 64.7 to 51.4. The overall signal transitioned to "favorable," while the risk label remains "elevated."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 20.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase annual revenue to $7.79B in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Fortinet aims to grow its annual revenue to a range of $7.71 billion to $7.87 billion by the end of 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 increased from $7.5B-$7.7B to $7.71B-$7.87B, indicating a growth trajectory from $6.78B in 2025. The company is delivering on its growth priority with upward revenue guidance.
65%CEO/CFO:“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects revenue in the range of $7.710 billion to $7.870 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects revenue in the range of $7.710 billion to $7.870 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects revenue in the range of $7.500 billion to $7.700 billion.”
- #2
Achieve EPS of $3.13 in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Fortinet targets diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.10 to $3.16 for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 increased from $2.94-$3.00 to $3.10-$3.16, reflecting a positive trajectory. The company is on track to achieve its EPS target with upward guidance revisions.
65%CEO/CFO:“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.10 to $3.16.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $3.10 to $3.16.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“For the fiscal year 2026, Fortinet expects diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $2.94 to $3.00.”
- #3
Maintain strong cash flow from operations
Capital allocationFortinet emphasizes maintaining robust cash flow from operations to support growth and investment.
MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations ranged from $451.9M to $655.2M in 2025, indicating strong operational cash flow. The company is maintaining its focus on cash flow to support growth and investment.
Cash from operations ranged from $451.9M to $655.2M in 202535%CEO/CFO:“Cash from operating activities was $620.2 million in Q4 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-25Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-25Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Cash from operating activities was $620.2 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Cash from operating activities was $655.2 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Cash from operating activities was $451.9 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FTNT Fortinet | +39 | fair | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Fortinet, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act…
earnings preannouncement—score 63 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Fortinet, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under t…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8 - 2025-08-218mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On August 21, 2025, the Board of Directors of Fortinet, Inc. (“Fortinet”) (i) authorized an increase of Fortinet’s share repurchase program by $1 billion worth of shares of common stock for an aggregate authorized repurchase amount of up to $9.25 billion and (ii) extended the share repurchase program from February 28, 2026 to February 28, 2027. As of August 21, 2025, approximately $1.23 billion remained available under the existing program, including the $1 billion increase. Rep…
capital allocationpositivescore 0 - 2025-05-1511mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Fortinet, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K on February 6, 2025 disclosing, among other things, that, on February 4, 2025, Keith Jensen, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, age 66, had notified the Company that he intended to retire on May 15, 2025 (the “Retirement”) and that, effective as of and contingent upon the Retirem…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.