Golden Entertainment (GDEN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.550.00%
Close 2026-05-01 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GDEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GDEN — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-04-30
Changes in Control of Registrant. The information set forth above under Introduction and in Items 1.02, 2.01, 3.01 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K12B is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can affect company plans and success after the deal.
Watch forNew executives are announced. Their roles are clarified within two months after the transaction.
Also watch forNo changes in leaders are announced after the deal.
Why it matters: The acquisition will make Golden Entertainment private. This will change its financial reports.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes successfully with all approvals by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe deal does not close because of regulatory issues or unmet conditions.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if the company is recovering from its recent losses. This is key for understanding future performance.
Supportive ifQ1 2026 revenues are over $160 million. This shows a recovery.
Worry ifQ1 2026 revenues are below $150 million. This shows a continued decline.
Why it matters: Approvals are key for the acquisition to move forward. Delays may show bigger problems.
Worry ifApprovals for the acquisition are given on time.
Less concerning ifApprovals are late or not given. This changes the acquisition timeline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $256 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,770 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the acquisition is complete, GDEN may become private. This affects shareholder value and future plans.
Watch forThe acquisition will finish and get approvals by the end of Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe acquisition does not close on time or is canceled.
Why it matters: Regulatory approvals are key for the acquisition to move forward. Delays can change the timeline.
Worry ifRegulators approve the deal by the end of Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifRegulators delay or deny approval for the deal.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show how the deal affects Golden Entertainment's finances.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenues improve compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenues decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The completion of this deal will take Golden Entertainment private. This will change how the company operates and is valued.
Watch forRegulatory approvals are received. The transaction closes by the end of Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe transaction fails to close due to regulatory issues or other conditions not being met.