Geron Corp. (GERN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.95-12.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GERN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 46.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 122.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GERN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report shall be deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company with the U.S. Securities and Exchang…
Why it matters: Geron has named broader access outside the U.S. as a goal. A clear sales or access step would show progress beyond U.S. growth.
Supportive ifGeron reports a launch in a named country, new coverage for costs, or product sales outside the U.S.
Worry ifGeron reports no named launch, reimbursement, or sales milestone outside the U.S. in its next update.
Why it matters: Geron kept its expense range, but first-half costs were higher than a year ago. A rise above the range could add pressure.
Worry ifGeron reports full-year 2026 costs above $240 million.
Less concerning ifGeron reports full-year costs of $240 million or less.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was $57.5 million, and Geron kept its full-year range. Q3 results will show if sales stay on pace.
Watch forQ3 results show revenue and updated full-year guidance on pace to reach at least $220 million in 2026.
Also watch forQ3 results lead Geron to cut its 2026 revenue range below $220 million.
Why it matters: More ordering accounts and demand helped drive recent sales growth. A slowdown would test Geron's U.S. growth plan.
Watch forQ3 ordering accounts rise above roughly 1,575, and demand grows from Q2.
Also watch forQ3 ordering accounts fall below roughly 1,575, or demand shrinks from Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $635 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,413 loss on $10,000 · 54.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.