GEV
GE VernovaNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GEV has a signal label of "mild_favorable" with a composite score of 10.3. This change from a previous label of "mixed" is driven by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions related to growth and labor. The confidence level is medium at 72.5, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the assessment. The analysis is provisional, reflecting the current state of the data.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.40
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.46 → $3.15 (-9.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 10 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 12 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
13 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase free cash flow guidancecapital allocationon track91% progress
4/22: “We are raising our free cash flow guidance to $6.5-$7.5 billion, up from $5.0-$5.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance was raised from $5.0-$5.5 billion to $6.5-$7.5 billion for 2026. The increase in guidance indicates a positive trajectory in cash flow expectations, aligning with management's stated priority.
- 2.Raise revenue guidance for 2026growthmixed65% progress
4/22: “We are raising our 2026 financial guidance to $44.5-$45.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was increased from $44-$45 billion to $44.5-$45.5 billion for 2026. This upward revision reflects management's confidence in achieving higher revenue, consistent with their growth priority.
- 3.Improve adjusted EBITDA margincoston track100% progress
4/22: “Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased to 12%-14%, up from 11%-13%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised from 11%-13% to 12%-14% for 2026. This increase suggests a focus on improving operational efficiency, aligning with management's cost management priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 56%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.59 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 21/100, drawdown 65/100, beta 41/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of 2026-05-08, the signal label for GEV changed from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." This change reflects a severity score of 20.0. Additionally, there are several unfavorable scenarios noted, including a potential guidance cut and a reversal in growth and labor states. The overall situation remains provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase free cash flow guidance
Capital allocationRaise free cash flow guidance to $6.5-$7.5 billion for 2026.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance was raised from $5.0-$5.5 billion to $6.5-$7.5 billion for 2026. The increase in guidance indicates a positive trajectory in cash flow expectations, aligning with management's stated priority.
Free cash flow guidance raised to $6.5-$7.5 billion for 202691%CEO/CFO:“We are raising our free cash flow guidance to $6.5-$7.5 billion, up from $5.0-$5.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are raising our free cash flow guidance to $6.5-$7.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow of $5.0-$5.5 billion, up from $4.5-$5.0 billion.”
- #2
Raise revenue guidance for 2026
GrowthIncrease revenue guidance to $44.5-$45.5 billion for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was increased from $44-$45 billion to $44.5-$45.5 billion for 2026. This upward revision reflects management's confidence in achieving higher revenue, consistent with their growth priority.
Revenue guidance increased to $44.5-$45.5 billion for 202665%CEO/CFO:“We are raising our 2026 financial guidance to $44.5-$45.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We are raising our 2026 financial guidance to $44.5-$45.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“GE Vernova now expects revenue of $44-$45 billion.”
- #3
Improve adjusted EBITDA margin
CostRaise adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 12%-14% for 2026.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised from 11%-13% to 12%-14% for 2026. This increase suggests a focus on improving operational efficiency, aligning with management's cost management priority.
Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased to 12%-14% for 2026100%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased to 12%-14%, up from 11%-13%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-22Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased to 12%-14%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11%-13%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
26 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | -4.8 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-22)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, GE Vernova Inc. (the "Company") released its first-quarter 2026 financial results on its investor relations website at www.gevernova.com/investors. A copy of these is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Excha…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, GE Vernova Inc. (the "Company") released its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on its investor relations website at www.gevernova.com/investors. A copy of these is attached as Exhibit 99 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Ex…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7 - 2026-01-213mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Mavi Zingoni has notified GE Vernova Inc. (the “Company”) that she will resign from her position as the Chief Executive Officer, Power Segment and as an officer of the Company effective as of January 21, 2026. The Company entered into a mutual agreement that defines the terms of her exit. Ms. Zingoni will serve as an advisor and be available to ass…
executive changeneutralscore 7 - 2026-02-043mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 4, 2026, GE Vernova Inc. (“ GE Vernova ”) completed its underwritten public offering (the “ Offering ”) of $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.250% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”), $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.875% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 2036 Notes ”) and $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2056 (the “ 2056 Notes ” and, together with the 2031 Notes and the 2036 Notes, the “ Notes ”) pursuant…
capital allocationneutralscore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.