GIS
General MillsNYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GIS has a composite score of 13.5 and is labeled as "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.2, with strengths in macro factors (15.5) and valuation (90.0, labeled as inexpensive). However, momentum is weak at -25.7, and the overall risk is moderate at 35.1. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.11
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.82 (-0.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 19% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain free cash flow conversion at 95%capital allocationbehind30% progress
3/18: “Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent of adjusted after-tax earnings.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently guided for free cash flow conversion to be at least 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings. This priority has been reiterated without specific financial outcomes disclosed in the recent quarters, indicating persistent focus but limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter.
- 2.Organic net sales guidance down 1.5% to 2%growthbehind0% progress
3/18: “Organic net sales are expected to be down 1.5 to 2 percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue declined from $4.86B in 2026-Q2 to $4.44B in 2026-Q3, aligning with the guidance of a 1.5% to 2% decline in organic net sales. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance, indicating delivery on this priority.
- 3.Adjusted EPS expected to decline 16% to 20%growthbehind0% progress
3/18: “Adjusted diluted EPS are both expected to be down 16 to 20 percent in constant currency.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. EPS declined from $0.78 in 2026-Q2 to $0.56 in 2026-Q3, reflecting a downward trajectory consistent with the guidance of a 16% to 20% decline. Management's forecast aligns with the observed financial performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.14 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 61/100, drawdown 32/100, beta 86/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain free cash flow conversion at 95%
Capital allocationEnsure free cash flow conversion remains at least 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently guided for free cash flow conversion to be at least 95% of adjusted after-tax earnings. This priority has been reiterated without specific financial outcomes disclosed in the recent quarters, indicating persistent focus but limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter.
30%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent of adjusted after-tax earnings.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-18Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-18Show history (4)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent...”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent...”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent...”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow conversion is expected to be at least 95 percent...”
- #2
Organic net sales guidance down 1.5% to 2%
GrowthReaffirm fiscal 2026 guidance with organic net sales expected to decline 1.5% to 2%.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue declined from $4.86B in 2026-Q2 to $4.44B in 2026-Q3, aligning with the guidance of a 1.5% to 2% decline in organic net sales. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance, indicating delivery on this priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“Organic net sales are expected to be down 1.5 to 2 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-18Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-18Show history (4)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Organic net sales are expected to be down 1.5 to 2 percent.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Organic net sales are expected to range between down 1 percent and up 1 percent.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Organic net sales are expected to range between down 1 percent and up 1 percent.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Organic net sales are expected to range between down 1 percent and up 1 percent.”
- #3
Adjusted EPS expected to decline 16% to 20%
GrowthForecast adjusted diluted EPS to decrease by 16% to 20% in constant currency for fiscal 2026.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. EPS declined from $0.78 in 2026-Q2 to $0.56 in 2026-Q3, reflecting a downward trajectory consistent with the guidance of a 16% to 20% decline. Management's forecast aligns with the observed financial performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted diluted EPS are both expected to be down 16 to 20 percent in constant currency.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-18Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-18Show history (4)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“Adjusted diluted EPS are both expected to be down 16 to 20 percent...”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Adjusted diluted EPS are both expected to be down 10 to 15 percent...”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted diluted EPS are both expected to be down 10 to 15 percent...”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted diluted EPS is also expected to be down 10 to 15 percent...”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GIS General Mills | +14 | inexpensive | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of General Mills, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Dana M. McNabb Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective June 1, 2026. The Board also elected Ms. McNabb to the Company’s Board effective June 1, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished with this report as Exhibit…
executive changeneutralscore 63 - 2026-05-044d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 4, 2026, after more than twenty years of service, Steve Odland informed the Company that he has decided not to stand for reelection to the Board of Directors at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders in September. Mr. Odland will continue to serve as a director though the remainder of his current term. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the re…
executive changeneutralscore 51 - 2026-03-181mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 24 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 26, 2026, Joan L. Bottarini was appointed to the Board of Directors of General Mills, Inc. (the “Company”). The Board has determined that Ms. Bottarini qualifies as an independent director in accordance with the New York Stock Exchange Listing Standards. Ms. Bottarini was appointed to the Audit and Compensation and Talent Committees of t…
executive changeneutralscore 5 - 2025-12-174mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 3
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.