GPC
Genuine Parts CompanyNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GPC has a composite score of 12.2, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 77.7 and an elevated risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, while momentum is notably weak at -45.1. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.09 → $2.06 (-1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve sales growth of 3% to 5.5%growthmixed65% progress
4/21: “The company is reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance: Total sales growth 3% to 5.5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Sales were $6.3 billion in 2026-Q1, a 6.8% increase from $5.9 billion in 2025-Q1, exceeding the upper end of the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth target.
- 2.Maintain free cash flow between $550M and $700Mcapital allocationmixed64% progress
4/21: “Free cash flow $550 million to $700 million for the year ending December 31, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow was a deficit of $34 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $550M to $700M target. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the stated cash flow range.
- 3.Establish EPS guidance of $6.1 to $6.6growthmixed65% progress
4/21: “Diluted earnings per share $6.10 to $6.60 for the year ending December 31, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Diluted EPS was $1.37 in 2026-Q1, which is on track to meet the annual guidance of $6.10 to $6.60. The trajectory is consistent with the stated EPS target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 29%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 52/100, drawdown 30/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve sales growth of 3% to 5.5%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Targeting total sales growth between 3% and 5.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Sales were $6.3 billion in 2026-Q1, a 6.8% increase from $5.9 billion in 2025-Q1, exceeding the upper end of the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth target.
65%CEO/CFO:“The company is reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance: Total sales growth 3% to 5.5%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company is reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance: Total sales growth 3% to 5.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Total sales growth 3% to 5.5% for 2026.”
- #2
Maintain free cash flow between $550M and $700M
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Aim to maintain free cash flow within the range of $550 million to $700 million for 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow was a deficit of $34 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $550M to $700M target. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the stated cash flow range.
Free cash flow was a deficit of $34 million for the first three months of 2026.64%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow $550 million to $700 million for the year ending December 31, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Free cash flow $550 million to $700 million for the year ending December 31, 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Free cash flow $550 million to $700 million for 2026.”
- #3
Establish EPS guidance of $6.1 to $6.6
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Set earnings per share guidance between $6.10 and $6.60 for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Diluted EPS was $1.37 in 2026-Q1, which is on track to meet the annual guidance of $6.10 to $6.60. The trajectory is consistent with the stated EPS target.
65%CEO/CFO:“Diluted earnings per share $6.10 to $6.60 for the year ending December 31, 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Diluted earnings per share $6.10 to $6.60 for the year ending December 31, 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“EPS guidance of $6.1 to $6.6 for 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
62 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPC Genuine Parts Company | +12 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-17)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2117d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Genuine Parts Company issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K of Genuine Parts Company, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being "furnished" and shall not be deemed "f…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 53 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 28, 2026, Genuine Parts Company (the "Company") entered into a seventh amendment (the "Seventh Amendment") to its existing Syndicated Facility Agreement, dated October 30, 2020, by and among the Company, UAP, Inc., certain designated Company subsidiaries, as borrowers, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, domestic swing line lender and L/C issuer, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., acting through its Toronto Branch, as Canadian swing…
capital allocationneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 41 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On April 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of one dollar and six and one quarter cents ($1.0625) per share on the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on July 2, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 5, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend declaration is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
capital allocationneutralscore 41 - 2026-03-201mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 18, 2026, Naveen Krishna, the Executive Vice President, Chief Information & Digital Officer of Genuine Parts Company (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intent to resign from the Company to pursue other opportunities. Mr. Krishna will step down as an executive officer of the Company, effective April 1, 2026, but will rem…
executive changeneutralscore 18
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.