GPN
Global PaymentsNYSEFinancialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GPN has a composite score of 9.0 and a signal label of "mixed." The management score increased by 10.1 points to 46.8, contributing positively to the overall assessment. However, the macro score is -7.7, indicating unfavorable conditions, while the sector score is low at 14.6. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.54 → $3.53 (-0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 25 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.8% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Expand adjusted operating margin by 150 basis points in 2026costbehind7% progress
5/6: “We continue to expect normalized 1 adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points for the full year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income decreased from $778M in 2025-Q3 to $317M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the margin expansion goal. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the 150 basis point expansion.
- 2.Achieve 5% net revenue growth in 2026growthbehind7% progress
5/6: “We continue to expect normalized 1 , constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5% for the full year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $2.42B in 2025-Q1 to $1.35B in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline rather than growth. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the 5% growth target.
- 3.Repurchase $500 million in sharescapital allocationmixed37% progress
5/7: “Global Payments entered into an accelerated share repurchase program to repurchase $500 million of shares.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced a $500 million share repurchase program, indicating a strategic capital allocation move. This is a new initiative with no prior quarters for comparison.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 38%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −30%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.53 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 37/100, drawdown 41/100, beta 47/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · management_scoreseverity 25
Management rose by 10.1 points (from 36.7 to 46.8).
As of 2026-05-08, GPN's management score increased by 10.1 points, rising from 36.7 to 46.8. The overall signal transitioned to "mixed." The macro score is reported at -7.7, indicating unfavorable conditions, while the sector score is at 14.6. The situation remains provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 5.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Expand adjusted operating margin by 150 basis points in 2026
CostNew since 2026-05-06Global Payments aims to achieve a 150 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin for the full year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income decreased from $778M in 2025-Q3 to $317M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the margin expansion goal. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the 150 basis point expansion.
7%CEO/CFO:“We continue to expect normalized 1 adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points for the full year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points.”
- #2
Achieve 5% net revenue growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06Global Payments targets a 5% constant currency adjusted net revenue growth for the full year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $2.42B in 2025-Q1 to $1.35B in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline rather than growth. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving the 5% growth target.
7%CEO/CFO:“We continue to expect normalized 1 , constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5% for the full year 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5% excluding dispositions.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5% excluding dispositions.”
- #3
Repurchase $500 million in shares
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-07Global Payments announced a $500 million accelerated share repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The company announced a $500 million share repurchase program, indicating a strategic capital allocation move. This is a new initiative with no prior quarters for comparison.
37%CEO/CFO:“Global Payments entered into an accelerated share repurchase program to repurchase $500 million of shares.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-07Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Global Payments entered into an accelerated share repurchase program to repurchase $500 million of shares.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPN Global Payments | +9.0 | inexpensive | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-062d agoItem 2.02
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 75 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On May 6, 2026, Global Payments Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an accelerated share repurchase (“ASR”) program to repurchase an aggregate of $500 million of the Company’s shares of common stock as part of the Company’s previously announced, board-approved share repurchase program. Approximately 5,744,650 shares of the Company’s common stock to be repurchased under the ASR will be received by the Company on May 8, 2026. The total number of shares that the Company will repurchas…
capital allocationpositivescore 50
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.