GRMN
GarminNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, GRMN has a signal label of "mild_favorable" with a composite score of 10.5. This change from "mixed" to "mild_favorable" is driven by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The scores indicate medium confidence (75.8) and elevated risk (53.2), with notable strengths in quality (70.3) and weaknesses in momentum (28.3) and sector performance (12.3). The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.18
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.30 → $2.26 (-1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -3.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain revenue guidance for 2026growthmixed65% progress
4/29: “We are maintaining our fiscal year 2026 guidance of approximately $7.9 billion revenue.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has maintained its revenue guidance of $7.9 billion for 2026, reflecting a 9% increase over 2025. The company is on track with this guidance, as reiterated in recent disclosures.
- 2.Achieve pro forma EPS of $9.35 for 2026growthmixed65% progress
2/18: “We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has set a pro forma EPS target of $9.35 for 2026, supported by a gross margin of 58.5%. The company has consistently reiterated this target, indicating a focus on achieving it.
- 3.Maintain gross margin of 58.5% for 2026costmixed65% progress
2/18: “We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has consistently targeted a gross margin of 58.5% for 2026, aligning with its EPS goals. The company has reiterated this margin target, indicating a commitment to cost management.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 44/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of 2026-05-08, the signal label for GRMN changed from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut, while there are favorable scenarios with estimates of 5.0 if the consumer discretionary sector trend improves and 4.0 if guidance is raised. The overall situation is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain revenue guidance for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Garmin aims to maintain its revenue guidance of $7.9 billion for fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has maintained its revenue guidance of $7.9 billion for 2026, reflecting a 9% increase over 2025. The company is on track with this guidance, as reiterated in recent disclosures.
65%CEO/CFO:“We are maintaining our fiscal year 2026 guidance of approximately $7.9 billion revenue.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect full-year 2026 revenue of $7.9 billion, an increase of 9% over 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We are maintaining our fiscal year 2026 guidance of approximately $7.9 billion revenue.”
- #2
Achieve pro forma EPS of $9.35 for 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Garmin targets a pro forma EPS of $9.35 for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has set a pro forma EPS target of $9.35 for 2026, supported by a gross margin of 58.5%. The company has consistently reiterated this target, indicating a focus on achieving it.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
- #3
Maintain gross margin of 58.5% for 2026
CostNew since 2026-05-04Garmin aims to maintain a gross margin of 58.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Garmin has consistently targeted a gross margin of 58.5% for 2026, aligning with its EPS goals. The company has reiterated this margin target, indicating a commitment to cost management.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-18Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We expect our full-year pro forma EPS to be $9.35 based upon gross margin of 58.5%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRMN Garmin | +11 | expensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 2.02
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of Garmin Ltd. under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 12
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.