Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.60-6.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GWRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 129.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 127.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GWRS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026 , Global Water Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Why it matters: New assets helped lift revenue, but depreciation and interest costs hurt Q1 profit. Q2 net income rose to $2.7 million.
Watch forQ3 revenue grows year over year and net income stays above zero.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls year over year or the company reports a net loss.
Why it matters: The settlement seeks $2.3 million in added annual revenue. Approval would help cover costs from recent water system investments.
Supportive ifThe ACC approves the settlement and sets new GW-Santa Cruz rates near the requested November 1, 2026 start date.
Worry ifThe ACC rejects the settlement or approves a much smaller increase than $2.3 million a year.
Why it matters: The old case was withdrawn, delaying a rate review for the wastewater utility. Management plans to file again using 2026 results.
Supportive ifGW-Palo Verde files a new rate case in 2027 using a 2026 test year, as management described.
Worry ifNo new GW-Palo Verde rate case is filed during 2027, or the filing seeks no added rate recovery.
Why it matters: More connections can add steady water and wastewater revenue. Q2 growth was 2.6% a year without the Tucson systems deal.
Supportive ifThe next results show active connections growing at an annual rate above 2.6%. This excludes the Tucson systems deal.
Worry ifActive connections grow at an annual rate below 1.9%, the level reported for Q1. This excludes the Tucson deal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,386 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company issued 1,129,944 shares in August. More new shares could spread future earnings across a larger share count.
Worry ifA new filing reports another common stock sale or share issue after the August placement.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly filing shows no new share issue beyond the 1,129,944 shares sold in August.