HCA
HCA HealthcareNYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, HCA has a composite score of 22.4 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 74.1 and reflects strengths in management (66.8) and quality (72.2), while facing challenges in momentum (-0.3) and sector performance (7.6). The analysis is provisional, indicating that the data may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.11
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $7.47 → $7.39 (-1.1% / 30d). 5 raised, 9 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.7% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 revenue guidancegrowthbehind7% progress
4/24: “The Company is reaffirming its 2026 estimated guidance ranges previously issued on January 27, 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The 2026 revenue guidance range of $76.5 billion to $80 billion has been reaffirmed. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $15.498 billion, showing limited progress towards the annual target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Maintain capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed37% progressprovisional
1/27: “Capital expenditures for 2026, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to range between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion. No specific quarterly capex data provided for 2025-Q4, indicating limited visibility into current execution. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
- 3.Announce share buybackcapital allocationmixed37% progress
4/30: “HCA Inc. completed the public offering of $3 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. HCA announced a share buyback program, supported by a $3 billion debt issuance. No specific buyback execution data provided, indicating early stages of implementation. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.38 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 55/100, drawdown 57/100, beta 38/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04HCA Healthcare has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance range of $76.5 billion to $80 billion.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The 2026 revenue guidance range of $76.5 billion to $80 billion has been reaffirmed. Revenue for 2025-Q4 was $15.498 billion, showing limited progress towards the annual target. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
7%CEO/CFO:“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 estimated guidance ranges previously issued on January 27, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-24Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 estimated guidance ranges...”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Today, the Company issued the following estimated guidance for 2026...”
- #2
Maintain capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04HCA Healthcare plans to maintain capital expenditures between $5 billion and $5.5 billion for 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion. No specific quarterly capex data provided for 2025-Q4, indicating limited visibility into current execution. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
37%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures for 2026, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to range between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures for 2026, excluding acquisitions, are estimated...”
- #3
Announce share buyback
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04HCA Healthcare announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. HCA announced a share buyback program, supported by a $3 billion debt issuance. No specific buyback execution data provided, indicating early stages of implementation. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
37%CEO/CFO:“HCA Inc. completed the public offering of $3 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“HCA Inc. completed the public offering of $3 billion aggregate principal...”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HCA HCA Healthcare | +22 | inexpensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Issuance of $3,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior notes Overview On April 30, 2026, HCA Inc. (the “Issuer”), a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Parent Guarantor”), completed the public offering of (i) $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.700% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), (ii) $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and (iii) $…
capital allocationpositivescore 55 - 2026-04-2414d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 24, 2026, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing, among other matters, its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, the text of which is set forth as Exhibit 99.1 .
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 47 - 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
capital allocationnegativescore 43 - 2026-04-2711d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On April 27, 2026, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (the “Registrant”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the commencement of its proposed public offering by HCA Inc. (the “Issuer”), a direct, wholly owned subsidiary of the Registrant, of senior unsecured notes (the “Offering”). The text of the Press Release is set forth as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. On April 27, 2026, the Issuer provided notice of its election to redeem all $1.500 billion of i…
capital allocationneutralscore 40 - 2026-04-2414d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 24, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.78 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 30, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 16, 2026.
capital allocationneutralscore 37
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.