Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$311.18-1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put HLT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — EPS of about $8.34 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance mid $8.29 vs target $8.28; low $8.22 is below target.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHilton's growth relies on strong demand in the luxury hotel sector. Recent earnings showed revenue growth of 6.4% year over year, with a recent inline EPS of 2.29. The stock trades at 37× P/E, above the 19× peer median, indicating high expectations. If guidance is cut, the stock may face significant downward pressure, with a 16% miss probability for the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades. The thesis is broken due to a primary pillar failing, as EPS guidance is slightly below target.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. HLT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering HLT (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HLT in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare HLT with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put HLT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Strong Q2 results and upgraded guidance support growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $311.18
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $311.18.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Business demand and room growth support net unit growth.
Earnings call confirms growth and capital return targets.
Advances: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Hilton targets $3.5B shareholder returns, aligning with capital allocation.
Threatens: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Profit forecast miss raises concerns over capital returns.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Increased room revenue growth supports net unit growth objective.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Higher revenue outlook supports growth objectives.
Threatens: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Current-quarter outlook miss impacts capital allocation.
