HLT
Hilton WorldwideNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, HLT has a composite score of 4.2 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 75.5%. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, with notable unfavorable scenarios related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.13
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.44 → $2.25 (-7.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 15 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
7 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-05-05HLT — President transitionimpact 0.57
- 2026-03-18HLT — credit agreementimpact 0.35
- 2025-12-11HLT — share buyback announcedimpact 0.27
- 2025-12-11HLT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.21
- 2025-12-02HLT — debt issuanceimpact 0.20
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026growthbehind0% progress
4/28: “CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net unit growth was 6.3% from March 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026, indicating progress towards the 6.0% to 7.0% target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated growth priority.
- 2.Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026capital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “Hilton projects a capital return of approximately $3.5 billion for the full year 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital return reached $1,084 million year to date through April 2026, indicating progress towards the $3.5 billion target for the full year. The trajectory is delivering on the capital return priority.
- 3.Launch of new brands and partnershipsgrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “In March 2026, announced the launch of a new brand, Select by Hilton.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Hilton launched Select by Hilton in March 2026 and Apartment Collection by Hilton in January 2026, expanding its brand portfolio. The trajectory shows active brand development, aligning with growth priorities.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 30%; 252d 23%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −10%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.06 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 62/100, drawdown 79/100, beta 6/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 7.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
GrowthHilton aims to achieve net unit growth between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2026 through strategic expansions and new brand launches.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net unit growth was 6.3% from March 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026, indicating progress towards the 6.0% to 7.0% target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated growth priority.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to deliver net unit growth of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'Delivering net unit growth between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent in 2026 and beyond.'”
- #2
Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Capital allocationHilton plans to return approximately $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital return reached $1,084 million year to date through April 2026, indicating progress towards the $3.5 billion target for the full year. The trajectory is delivering on the capital return priority.
35%CEO/CFO:“Hilton projects a capital return of approximately $3.5 billion for the full year 2026.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Hilton projects a capital return of approximately $3.5 billion for the full year 2026.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Full year 2026 capital return is projected to be approximately $3.5 billion.”
- #3
Launch of new brands and partnerships
GrowthHilton is expanding its brand portfolio with new launches like Select by Hilton and partnerships to enhance market presence.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Hilton launched Select by Hilton in March 2026 and Apartment Collection by Hilton in January 2026, expanding its brand portfolio. The trajectory shows active brand development, aligning with growth priorities.
0%CEO/CFO:“In March 2026, announced the launch of a new brand, Select by Hilton.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-28Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“In March 2026, announced the launch of a new brand, Select by Hilton.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Announced the launch of a new brand, Apartment Collection by Hilton, in January 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
42 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLT Hilton Worldwide | +4.2 | full | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-28)-16 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Christopher W. Silcock, President, Global Brands & Commercial Services, intends to retire from the Company in the first quarter of 2027. As a result, the Company announced several leadership updates, which will become effective later in 2026 in preparation for Mr. Silcock…
executive changeneutralscore 52 - 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the results of the Company’s operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-03-181mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Credit Agreement Amendment On March 18, 2026 (the “Amendment Effective Date”), Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc. (the “Borrower”), an indirect subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), entered into Amendment No. 12 (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement dated as of October 25, 2013 (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”). After giving effect to the Amendment, (i) the maturity date of the senior secured revolving credit facil…
capital allocationneutralscore 20 - 2026-02-112mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the results of the Company’s operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9 - 2025-12-114mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture with respect to 5.500% Senior Notes due 2034 On December 10, 2025, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc. (the “Issuer”), an indirect subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), issued and sold $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”) under an Indenture, dated as of December 10, 2025 (the “Indenture”), by and among the Issuer, the Company, as a guarantor, the other guarantors par…
capital allocationpositivescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.