HSY
Hershey Company (The)NYSEConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, HSY has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of 2.9 and a medium confidence level of 74.8. The score reflects unfavorable scenarios such as a potential guidance cut and a reversal in labor conditions, alongside favorable scenarios like a possible improvement in the consumer staples sector trend. The top drivers influencing this score include macroeconomic factors related to labor, inflation, rates, and growth. This scoring is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.10
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.63 → $1.44 (-11.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 15 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase net sales growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/30: “The Company is reaffirming its net sales growth outlook for the year.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $2,887.54M in 2024-Q4 to $2,153.38M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving the targeted net sales growth. The company continues to focus on price realization and innovation to drive growth.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/30: “Capital expenditures in the range of approximately $425 million to $475 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently projected capital expenditures between $425 million and $475 million for 2026. The focus remains on managing capex within this range, but specific quarterly capex figures are not provided to assess delivery.
- 3.Maintain effective tax rateregulatorywatchprovisional
4/30: “A reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25% to 27%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for the effective tax rate to be between 25% and 27% for 2026. As this is a new priority, there is no historical data to assess delivery yet.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 25%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 1.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 55/100, drawdown 54/100, beta 100/100, earnings vol —.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase net sales growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing net sales growth through price realization and innovation.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $2,887.54M in 2024-Q4 to $2,153.38M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in achieving the targeted net sales growth. The company continues to focus on price realization and innovation to drive growth.
0%CEO/CFO:“The Company is reaffirming its net sales growth outlook for the year.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is reaffirming its net sales growth outlook for the year.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full-year reported net sales are expected to increase between 4% and 5%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We are raising our full year outlook for net sales.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain capital expenditures within the projected range for fiscal year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently projected capital expenditures between $425 million and $475 million for 2026. The focus remains on managing capex within this range, but specific quarterly capex figures are not provided to assess delivery.
35%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures in the range of approximately $425 million to $475 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures in the range of approximately $425 million to $475 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Capital expenditures of approximately $425 million to $450 million.”
- #3
Maintain effective tax rate
RegulatoryNew since 2026-05-04Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the projected range for fiscal year 2026.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for the effective tax rate to be between 25% and 27% for 2026. As this is a new priority, there is no historical data to assess delivery yet.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“A reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25% to 27%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“A reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25% to 27%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HSY Hershey Company (The) | +2.9 | — | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Andrew Archambault, President, US of The Hershey Company (the “Company”) will be leaving the Company effective May 1, 2026. The Company has begun a search for his replacement.
executive changeneutralscore 32 - 2026-03-311mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 31, 2026, The Hershey Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reaffirming its 2026 Full-year Financial Outlook. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 30 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 9 - 2025-08-278mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 21, 2025, Juan R. Perez notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of The Hershey Company (the “Company”) of his decision to retire from the Board and its Executive, Governance and Finance and Risk Management Committees, effective October 3, 2025. Mr. Perez indicated his decision to retire was not due to any disagreement with the Compa…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.