HWM
Howmet AerospaceNYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, HWM has a composite score of 19.9, categorized under the signal label "mild favorable." This score is driven by high confidence in guidance credibility at 100.0, but is tempered by a moderate risk label and a sector score of 16.7. Key macroeconomic factors, including growth and labor trends, are influencing the overall assessment.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.13 → $1.16 (+3.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 87% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
12 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2025-08-20HWM — President transitionimpact 0.28
- 2026-03-03HWM — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.26
- 2026-03-03HWM — debt issuanceimpact 0.26
- 2026-04-06HWM — acquisition completedimpact 0.26
- 2025-11-17HWM — litigation filedimpact 0.26
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Revenue growth guidance at approximately 10%growthbehind33% progress
2/12: “FY 2026: Revenue growth guidance at approximately 10%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for FY 2026 is approximately $9 billion, reflecting a 10% growth target. However, actual revenue in 2025-Q4 was $1.464 billion, indicating limited progress towards the annual target so far.
- 2.Free Cash Flow guidance for FY 2026capital allocationmixed57% progress
2/12: “Free Cash Flow 1 $1.550B $1.600B $1.650B.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Free Cash Flow guidance for FY 2026 is $1.55B to $1.65B. Cash from operations in 2025-Q4 was negative $808 million, indicating a significant gap to close to meet the guidance.
- 3.EPS guidance for FY 2026growthbehind33% progress
2/12: “Adj. Earnings per Share *1 $4.35 $4.45 $4.55.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance for FY 2026 is $4.35 to $4.55. Diluted EPS in 2025-Q3 was $0.95, suggesting a need for substantial improvement to achieve the guidance.
Guidance track record
Last 6 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-31 | $0.15 – $0.19 | $0.22 | beat |
| 2021-09-30 | $0.23 – $0.27 | $0.27 | inside |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.28 – $0.30 | $0.31 | beat |
| 2022-09-30 | $0.35 – $0.37 | $0.36 | inside |
| 2024-03-31 | $0.50 – $0.52 | $0.57 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.63 – $0.65 | $0.81 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 30%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −16%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.11 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 50/100, drawdown 68/100, beta 89/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 6 guided quarters · 15.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Revenue growth guidance at approximately 10%
GrowthManagement has guided for approximately 10% revenue growth for FY 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for FY 2026 is approximately $9 billion, reflecting a 10% growth target. However, actual revenue in 2025-Q4 was $1.464 billion, indicating limited progress towards the annual target so far.
33%CEO/CFO:“FY 2026: Revenue growth guidance at approximately 10%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“FY 2026: Revenue growth guidance at approximately 10%.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: Approximately $9 Billion, Up ~10% Year over Year.”
- #2
Free Cash Flow guidance for FY 2026
Capital allocationManagement has set a Free Cash Flow guidance range of $1.55B to $1.65B for FY 2026.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Free Cash Flow guidance for FY 2026 is $1.55B to $1.65B. Cash from operations in 2025-Q4 was negative $808 million, indicating a significant gap to close to meet the guidance.
57%CEO/CFO:“Free Cash Flow 1 $1.550B $1.600B $1.650B.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free Cash Flow 1 $1.550B $1.600B $1.650B.”
- #3
EPS guidance for FY 2026
GrowthManagement has provided an EPS guidance range of $4.35 to $4.55 for FY 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance for FY 2026 is $4.35 to $4.55. Diluted EPS in 2025-Q3 was $0.95, suggesting a need for substantial improvement to achieve the guidance.
33%CEO/CFO:“Adj. Earnings per Share *1 $4.35 $4.45 $4.55.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adj. Earnings per Share *1 $4.35 $4.45 $4.55.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HWM Howmet Aerospace | +20 | expensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-07)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On April 6, 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Howmet Aerospace”), completed its previously announced purchase of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, LLC (“Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., a Connecticut corporation (“Stanley Black & Decker”), for a cash purchase price of approximately $1.8 billion, subject to customary adjustments. Howmet Aerospace acquired…
mna activitypositivescore 33 - 2026-03-032mo agoItem 8.01
The 2028 Notes will mature on March 3, 2028 and bear interest at a rate of 3.750% per annum, the 2029 Notes will mature on April 15, 2029 and bear interest at a rate of 3.900% per annum and the 2036 Notes will mature on April 15, 2036 and bear interest at a rate of 4.750% per annum. Accrued and unpaid interest on the 2028 Notes will be payable semi-annually in arrears on March 3 and September 3, commencing on September 3, 2026. Accrued and unpaid interest on the 2029 Notes will be payable sem…
capital allocationneutralscore 11 - 2026-03-032mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant Please refer to the discussion under
capital allocationnegativescore 11 - 2026-02-122mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.