IBM
IBMNYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, IBM has a composite score of 23.5 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.1 and elevated risk, with notable strengths in valuation (73.4) and weaknesses in sector performance (21.4). The analysis is provisional and reflects various macroeconomic factors, including rates, growth, inflation, and labor.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.07
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.94 → $3.03 (+3.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 17 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve over 5% revenue growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/22: “We continue to expect more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $15.917 billion in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress towards the 5% growth target. The recurring focus on revenue growth has yet to translate into substantial delivery.
- 2.Increase free cash flow by $1 billioncapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/22: “We continue to expect full-year free cash flow to increase by about $1 billion year-over-year.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $5.169 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress towards the $1 billion increase target. However, the trajectory remains behind expectations.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 34%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −29%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 44/100, drawdown 43/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 1388.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve over 5% revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04IBM aims to achieve more than 5% constant currency revenue growth for the fiscal year.
BehindStated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $15.917 billion in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress towards the 5% growth target. The recurring focus on revenue growth has yet to translate into substantial delivery.
0%CEO/CFO:“We continue to expect more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 4 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (4)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We continue to expect more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We enter 2026 with momentum and in a position of strength, giving us confidence in our full-year expectations of more than 5 percent constant currency revenue growth.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“We are raising our expectations for revenue growth to more than 5%.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“We continue to expect accelerating revenue growth to 5% plus for the full year.”
- #2
Increase free cash flow by $1 billion
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04IBM plans to increase its free cash flow by about $1 billion year-over-year.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $5.169 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress towards the $1 billion increase target. However, the trajectory remains behind expectations.
35%CEO/CFO:“We continue to expect full-year free cash flow to increase by about $1 billion year-over-year.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We continue to expect full-year free cash flow to increase by about $1 billion year-over-year.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“An increase of about $1 billion in year-over-year free cash flow.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IBM IBM | +24 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The registrant’s press release dated April 22, 2026, regarding its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026, including consolidated financial statements for the period ended March 31, 2026, is Exhibit 99.1 of this Form 8-K. In an effort to provide investors with additional information regarding the company’s results as determined by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the company has disclosed in the attached press relea…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 45
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.