IBM (IBM)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$306.14+2.21%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
IT Consulting & Other Services is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 26% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 31% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskIBM's growth in the quantum computing market has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 9% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations with an earnings surprise of 5.5%. It trades at 25.2× P/E versus a peer median of 11.6×, indicating that the market is pricing in more growth than is forecast. If IBM cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative, as our model puts the next-quarter miss near 11%. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. IBM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering IBM (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for IBM in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $306.14. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus IT Consulting & Other Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Invest over $10B in quantum over 5 years
Launch supports $10B quantum investment objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $306.14
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $306.14.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Achieve over 5% revenue growth
Upgrade reflects confidence in revenue growth potential.
Major wins likely boost revenue growth prospects.
Analyst upgrade suggests positive outlook on revenue growth.
Another analyst upgrade indicates confidence in IBM's performance.
Advances: Invest over $10B in quantum over 5 years
Government support boosts quantum investment outlook.
Advances: Achieve over 5% revenue growth
Analyst endorsement supports revenue growth potential.
Advances: Invest over $10B in quantum over 5 years
Trump's praise boosts confidence in quantum investments.