ICE
Intercontinental ExchangeNYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ICE has a composite score of 11.8 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 74.4 and is driven by factors such as macroeconomic conditions, management quality, and sector trends. The analysis is provisional, reflecting ongoing changes in guidance and macroeconomic indicators.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.09
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.90 → $1.92 (+1.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 94% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Manage operating expensescostbehind14% progress
4/30: “ICE's full year 2026 GAAP operating expenses are expected to be in a range of $5.095 billion to $5.145 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating expenses are expected to be between $5.095B and $5.145B for 2026. Despite the focus on managing expenses, the financials show a decline in net income from $851M in 2025-Q2 to $320M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in improving financial performance.
- 2.Control capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
2/5: “2026 Capital Expenditures $740 - $790 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $740M and $790M for 2026. The focus on controlling capex is evident, but the financials do not yet show a clear impact on operating income, which decreased from $1.297B in 2025-Q2 to $775M in 2025-Q4.
- 3.Grow mortgage technology revenuegrowthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/5: “2026 Mortgage Technology Revenue (% growth) Low-to-mid single digits.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims for low-to-mid single-digit growth in mortgage technology revenue. However, the financials do not provide specific revenue figures for this segment, making it difficult to assess progress. Overall revenue decreased from $3.262B in 2025-Q2 to $2.691B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 22%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −23%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 0.65 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 64/100, drawdown 55/100, beta 65/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Manage operating expenses
CostNew since 2026-05-04Focus on controlling operating expenses to improve financial performance.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating expenses are expected to be between $5.095B and $5.145B for 2026. Despite the focus on managing expenses, the financials show a decline in net income from $851M in 2025-Q2 to $320M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in improving financial performance.
14%CEO/CFO:“ICE's full year 2026 GAAP operating expenses are expected to be in a range of $5.095 billion to $5.145 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“ICE's full year 2026 GAAP operating expenses are expected to be in a range of $5.095 billion to $5.145 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“ICE's full year 2025 Exchanges recurring revenue growth is now expected to be 4% to 5%.”
- #2
Control capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Maintain disciplined capital expenditure levels to optimize financial resources.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $740M and $790M for 2026. The focus on controlling capex is evident, but the financials do not yet show a clear impact on operating income, which decreased from $1.297B in 2025-Q2 to $775M in 2025-Q4.
44%CEO/CFO:“2026 Capital Expenditures $740 - $790 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 Capital Expenditures $740 - $790 million.”
- #3
Grow mortgage technology revenue
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim for low-to-mid single-digit growth in mortgage technology revenue.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims for low-to-mid single-digit growth in mortgage technology revenue. However, the financials do not provide specific revenue figures for this segment, making it difficult to assess progress. Overall revenue decreased from $3.262B in 2025-Q2 to $2.691B in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving growth.
14%CEO/CFO:“2026 Mortgage Technology Revenue (% growth) Low-to-mid single digits.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 Mortgage Technology Revenue (% growth) Low-to-mid single digits.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ICE Intercontinental Exchange | +12 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. ICE makes references to non-GAAP financial information in the attached press release. A description of the non-GAAP financial information and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP fi…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 59
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.