Indivior (INDV)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.28+2.57%
Close 2026-11-02 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INDV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INDV — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-02
CEO — Joseph Ciaffoni: The CEO and other senior officers are departing as part of a merger, which is a significant management change but driven by the transaction rather than internal failure.
Why it matters: The company has set a $450 million cost ceiling. Nine-month costs were $331 million, leaving the final quarter to test that limit.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows non-GAAP operating costs above $450 million.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 report shows non-GAAP operating costs at or below $450 million.
Why it matters: The merger creates a larger company, but the release flags integration costs and business disruption. Later reports can show whether costs stay in check.
Worry ifA Supernus filing reports merger or integration costs. These push non-GAAP operating costs above the 2026 limit of $450 million.
Less concerning ifA report on the combined company shows non-GAAP operating costs of $450 million or less. It notes no major business disruption.
Why it matters: Unit growth shows whether sales gains come from more doses, not only price and product mix. U.S. unit growth was 17% in Q3.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows U.S. SUBLOCADE dispense unit growth below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifU.S. SUBLOCADE dispense unit growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger changes the company name and trading ticker. A close also triggers the special cash dividend.
Watch forA company filing confirms the merger closed on November 2. It also confirms payment of the special cash dividend as stated.
Also watch forThe merger does not close on November 2, or the company reports a delay or changed dividend terms.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,440 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: SUBLOCADE is the main growth driver. Its nine-month revenue was $753 million against a full-year range of $1,010 million to $1,050 million.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows SUBLOCADE revenue of at least $1,010 million, within the stated $1,010 million to $1,050 million range.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows SUBLOCADE revenue below $1,010 million.