Innovage Holding Corp. (INNV)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.09-7.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INNV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INNV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-08
by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such discl…
Why it matters: FY2026 ended with a $0.7 million net loss, despite a large rise in Adjusted EBITDA. A return to profit would show that gains reach the bottom line.
Supportive ifThe next report shows positive GAAP net income and a positive net income margin.
Worry ifThe next report shows a GAAP net loss or a negative net income margin.
Why it matters: InnovAge set a $1.05 billion to $1.085 billion revenue range. Results above the low end would extend its recent growth.
Supportive ifFY2027 revenue is at least $1.05 billion, and census reaches at least 8,625.
Worry ifFY2027 revenue falls below $1.05 billion or census falls below 8,625.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $94.6 million in FY2026. The new range calls for further growth, but the company still reports a small GAAP loss.
Worry ifFY2027 Adjusted EBITDA is below $105 million, the bottom of guidance.
Less concerning ifFY2027 Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $105 million, and GAAP net income is positive.
Why it matters: The filing describes a sale by a shareholder, not a new company share issue. Check the final filing for the number of shares sold and any change in company share count.
Watch forThe final filing confirms that only the named shareholder sold shares. InnovAge issued no new shares.
Also watch forThe final filing shows new shares issued by InnovAge or a higher company share count.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,321 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.