Innovage Holding Corp. (INNV)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.75-0.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INNV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers
INNV — director transition
Dated 2026-01-29
Director — Pavithra Mahesh and Sean Traynor: The Board of Directors appointed Pavithra Mahesh and Sean Traynor as new directors.
Why it matters: Census growth is important for revenue. A decline may show trouble attracting participants.
Worry ifCensus remains above 8,050 participants in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCensus drops below 8,050 participants in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Health Care is slowing down. If revenue growth picks up, it could help Innovage's outlook.
Supportive ifHealth Care revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth Care revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 10%.
Why it matters: InnovAge raised its revenue guidance, indicating strong growth. This is key for investor confidence and future performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance again. This shows they expect strong performance to continue.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance. This means performance is not as strong as they thought.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth shows better operations and financial health. It is important for profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $90 million in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $85 million in the next earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $596 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,321 loss on $10,000 · 33.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in participant numbers indicates demand for services. This can signal future revenue growth.
Supportive ifCensus grows to over 8,100 participants.
Worry ifCensus drops to under 7,900 participants.
Why it matters: Jennifer Browne's leadership may help operations. This is important for company growth and rules.
Supportive ifOperational metrics show a better experience for participants. This is due to the new COO.
Worry ifOperational metrics drop or stay the same after the change.