INTC
Intel CorporationNASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, INTC has a composite score of 9.1 with a signal label of "mixed." The score is influenced by high confidence in guidance credibility at 87.5, but faces challenges from macroeconomic factors, with a macro score of 32.3 and a risk label of "elevated." The top drivers affecting the score include macro rates, growth, inflation, and labor conditions.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.67
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.21 (+213.6% / 30d). 22 raised, 0 cut, 33 covering analysts.
3 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 20 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
23 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
36 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Ramp Intel 18A productionproductmixed55% progress
4/23: “CEO: 'Intel 18A yields are now running ahead of the internal projections.'”
- 2.Expand AI-driven businessesgrowthon track83% progress
4/23: “CFO: 'Our collective AI-driven businesses now represent 60 percent of revenue.'”
- 3.Improve factory output and supplysupply chainbehind30% progress
4/23: “CEO: 'We are maximizing and optimizing our factory output to meet customers’ needs.'”
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $-0.25 – $0.13 | $0.18 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $-0.03 | $-0.46 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | $-0.24 – $0.12 | $0.13 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $-0.27 | $0.13 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $-0.32 | $-0.10 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $-0.24 | $0.23 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.08 | $0.15 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $-0.21 | $0.29 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 94%; 252d 69%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −24%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.11 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 52/100, beta 11/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · -107.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Ramp Intel 18A production
ProductFocus on ramping Intel 18A production to support future product launches and foundry services.
Mixed55%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Intel 18A yields are now running ahead of the internal projections.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-23First seen 2026-04-23 - #2
Expand AI-driven businesses
GrowthFocus on expanding AI-driven businesses, which now represent 60% of revenue.
On track83%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Our collective AI-driven businesses now represent 60 percent of revenue.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-23First seen 2026-04-23 - #3
Improve factory output and supply
Supply chainMaximize and optimize factory output to meet customer demand, especially for Xeon server CPUs.
Behind30%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We are maximizing and optimizing our factory output to meet customers’ needs.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-23First seen 2026-04-23
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
44 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INTC Intel Corporation | +9.1 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2415d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24,2026, Scott Gawel, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Intel Corporation (the "Company"), resigned from the position of principal accounting officer, effective immediately, to pursue another career opportunity. At such time, Mr. David A. Zinsner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, a…
executive changeneutralscore 57 - 2026-04-2316d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Intel Corporation (“Intel” or the "Company") issued a press release announcing the financial results of its first quarter ended March 28, 2026 and forward-looking statements relating to its second quarter of 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The attached press release includes non-GAAP financial measures relating to our operations and forecasted outloo…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-04-309d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, Intel Corporation (“Intel”) issued $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.650% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.000% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”), $2,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.300% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes”), $1,750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.125% Senior Notes due 2056 (the “2056 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.200%…
capital allocationneutralscore 42 - 2026-04-081mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On April 8, 2026, Intel Corporation (“Intel”) repurchased from Apollo-managed funds and affiliates their 49% equity interest in the parties’ joint venture related to Intel’s Fab 34 in Ireland. The $14.2 billion repurchase price was financed by Intel with cash on hand and a bridge loan of $6.5 billion, which Intel intends to refinance, subject to market conditions. Intel owns 100% of the joint venture following the repurchase. The joint venture was created and operated pursuant to…
mna activitypositivescore 25 - 2026-04-031mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 30,2026, Intel Corporation determined that April Miller Boise, Intel’s Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer, will separate from Intel effective as of June 1, 2026. Upon her departure on June 1, 2026, Ms. Miller Boise will be entitled to severance benefits in accordance with the terms and conditions of the Intel Corporation Exec…
executive changeneutralscore 25
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.