IP
International PaperNYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, IP has a signal label of "mixed" with a composite score of -9.8. This change reflects a shift from a previous label of "cautious" and is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The confidence level is medium at 74.4, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the assessment. The analysis is provisional, meaning it may be subject to change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.21
- Slope (norm)0.35
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.27 → $-0.04 (-115.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 6 cut, 9 covering analysts.
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on cost and cash flow managementcostwatchprovisional
4/30: “We're updating our outlook to reflect the volatile environment, with a strong focus on managing cost and cash flow.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $302M in 2025-Q4, down from $793M in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in cost and cash flow management amid a volatile environment.
- 2.Separation of EMEA packaging businessotherwatchprovisional
4/30: “The Company will provide an update on the separation of our Europe, Middle East and Africa packaging business.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced plans to update on the separation of its EMEA packaging business, but no financial impact or progress details were provided in the current disclosures.
- 3.Progress on commercial and cost-out initiativescoston track100% progressprovisional
1/29: “We anticipate meaningful progress on our commercial and cost-out initiatives.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Operating income was $843M in 2025-Q4, a significant improvement from -$675M in 2025-Q3, indicating some progress on commercial and cost-out initiatives, though further details are needed to assess full impact.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-30 | $0.76 | $1.24 | beat |
| 2022-09-30 | $1.24 | $1.01 | unclassifiable |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.55 | $0.44 | miss |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.42 | $-0.02 | unclassifiable |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 52%; 252d 42%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −44%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 31/100, drawdown 13/100, beta 7/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
As of 2026-05-08, the signal label for IP changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'. The composite delta estimate indicates an unfavorable scenario with a guidance cut of -8.0, while there are also favorable scenarios such as a potential guidance raise of +4.0. The overall composite score is -9.8, reflecting medium confidence and elevated risk. This information is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 21.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on cost and cash flow management
CostNew since 2026-05-04Maintain a strong focus on managing cost and cash flow amid a volatile environment.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $302M in 2025-Q4, down from $793M in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress in cost and cash flow management amid a volatile environment.
Cash from operating activities was $302M in 2025-Q4No scoreCEO/CFO:“We're updating our outlook to reflect the volatile environment, with a strong focus on managing cost and cash flow.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We're updating our outlook to reflect the volatile environment, with a strong focus on managing cost and cash flow.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We anticipate meaningful progress on our commercial and cost-out initiatives.”
- #2
Separation of EMEA packaging business
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Proceed with the separation of the Europe, Middle East, and Africa packaging business.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced plans to update on the separation of its EMEA packaging business, but no financial impact or progress details were provided in the current disclosures.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company will provide an update on the separation of our Europe, Middle East and Africa packaging business.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company will provide an update on the separation of our Europe, Middle East and Africa packaging business.”
- #3
Progress on commercial and cost-out initiatives
CostNew since 2026-05-04Advance commercial and cost-out initiatives to improve financial performance.
Watch →On trackNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Operating income was $843M in 2025-Q4, a significant improvement from -$675M in 2025-Q3, indicating some progress on commercial and cost-out initiatives, though further details are needed to assess full impact.
Operating income was $843M in 2025-Q4100%CEO/CFO:“We anticipate meaningful progress on our commercial and cost-out initiatives.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We anticipate meaningful progress on our commercial and cost-out initiatives.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
64 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IP International Paper | -9.8 | — | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, International Paper Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company will host a webcast and conference call today to discuss results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. During the call, the Company will also provide an update on the separation of our Europe, Middle East and Africa packaging business and adjus…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, International Paper Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary, unaudited financial results for the full-year and fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. The Company will host a webcast and conference call today to discuss results for the full-year and fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference is a copy of the press release. SECTION 9.…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 8 - 2026-01-233mo agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On January 23, 2026, International Paper Company, a New York corporation (the “Company”), completed the previously announced sale to funds affiliated with American Industrial Partners (“Buyer”) of all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of GCF US Holdings LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, GCF (Asia) Limited, a Hong Kong limited company, International Paper Cellulose Fibers (Poland) sp. z o.o., a limited liability company…
mna activitypositivescore 6
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.