Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$271.06-1.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading ITW? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track ITW free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading ITW? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track ITW free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 21%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHealthy across the board
ITW's growth in the industrial sector needs to continue to justify its price. Revenue grew 5% year over year, and the latest earnings beat expectations by 3.9%. It trades at 25× P/E, below the peer median of 32×. The price reflects less growth than expected, indicating modest expectations. If ITW cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-07. ITW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 16 analysts currently covering ITW (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ITW in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $271.06. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Achieve revenue growth of 2-4%
Q1 earnings beat estimates but revenues missed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-07. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $271.06
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $271.06.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase EPS guidance to $11.10-$11.50 for 2026
Q1 earnings surpass estimates, supporting EPS guidance.
Earnings beat supports revenue growth and EPS guidance.