ITW
Illinois Tool WorksNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ITW has a composite score of 28.8, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is driven by a high confidence level of 82.5 and a guidance credibility of 100.0, despite a low sector score of 16.7 and a total risk score of 22.9. Key drivers include macro factors related to growth, labor, rates, and inflation.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.80 → $2.79 (-0.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 5 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue growth of 2-4%growthbehind0% progress
4/30: “The company continues to project revenue growth of two to four percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $405.9M in 2025-Q3 to $381.3M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the 2-4% growth target. Management's recurring focus on this target contrasts with the declining revenue trajectory.
- 2.Free cash flow to exceed net incomecapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/30: “Free cash flow is projected to exceed 100 percent of net income.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$613M in 2025-Q4, indicating a challenge in achieving the goal of free cash flow exceeding net income. Despite management's consistent emphasis, the financials show limited progress.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-31 | $1.39 – $1.49 | $1.54 | beat |
| 2017-06-30 | $1.55 – $1.65 | $1.66 | beat |
| 2017-09-30 | $1.57 – $1.67 | $1.71 | beat |
| 2017-12-31 | $1.55 – $1.65 | $1.70 | beat |
| 2018-03-31 | $1.80 – $1.90 | $1.90 | inside |
| 2018-06-30 | $1.90 – $2.00 | $1.97 | inside |
| 2018-09-30 | $1.80 – $1.90 | $1.90 | inside |
| 2019-03-31 | $1.73 – $1.83 | $1.81 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 26%; 252d 21%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.88 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 65/100, drawdown 69/100, beta 88/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 3.8% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue growth of 2-4%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims for a revenue growth target of 2-4% for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $405.9M in 2025-Q3 to $381.3M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the 2-4% growth target. Management's recurring focus on this target contrasts with the declining revenue trajectory.
0%CEO/CFO:“The company continues to project revenue growth of two to four percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company continues to project revenue growth of two to four percent.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company projects revenue growth of two to four percent.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The company is projecting overall revenue growth of one to three percent.”
- #2
Free cash flow to exceed net income
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04The company aims for free cash flow to exceed net income for the fiscal year 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$613M in 2025-Q4, indicating a challenge in achieving the goal of free cash flow exceeding net income. Despite management's consistent emphasis, the financials show limited progress.
35%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow is projected to exceed 100 percent of net income.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow is projected to exceed 100 percent of net income.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Free cash flow is expected to be approximately 100 percent of net income.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Free cash flow is expected to exceed 100 percent of net income.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ITW Illinois Tool Works | +29 | fair | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-30)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the "Company") announced its 2026 first quarter results of operations in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company uses free cash flow to measure cash flow generated by operations that is available for dividends, share repurchases, acquisitions and debt repayment. The Company believes this non-GAAP financial measure, along with free cash flow to net income con…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 20, 2026, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a $3.0 billion, five-year credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Agent, Citibank, N.A. as Syndication Agent, both of which served as Joint Lead Arrangers and Joint Bookrunners, and a syndicate of lenders, that replaces the Company’s existing revolver that was scheduled to terminate on October 21, 2027. As of February 20, 2026, no amounts…
capital allocationneutralscore 11 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 9 - 2026-02-202mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement On February 20, 2026, in connection with the Company’s entry into the Credit Agreement, the existing credit agreement dated October 21, 2022, as amended, by and among the Company, the lenders named therein, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Agent, was terminated.
mna activitynegativescore 9 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026 , Illinois Tool Works Inc. (the "Company") announced its 2025 fourth quarter results of operations in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company uses free cash flow to measure cash flow generated by operations that is available for dividends, share repurchases, acquisitions and debt repayment. The Company believes this non-GAAP financial measure, along with free cash flow to net income…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.